Gemini Targets Regulated Prediction Markets Amid U.S. CFTC Review
Summary:
- Gemini prepares to launch regulated prediction markets, pending CFTC approval.
- The move would put it in direct competition with Kalshi and Polymarket.
- Analysts see this as Gemini’s next major growth driver following its IPO.
Crypto exchange Gemini is preparing to enter the fast-growing prediction market industry, according to a Bloomberg report citing sources familiar with the company’s plans. The move signals Gemini’s continued effort to expand beyond traditional crypto trading and into broader event-based financial products.
Gemini’s Next Big Product Push
Sources indicate that Gemini plans to launch regulated prediction contracts as soon as it secures approval for its derivatives exchange application with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The application, submitted in May, seeks authorization for Gemini to operate as a designated contract market, enabling users to trade contracts based on outcomes in politics, sports, and the economy.
However, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown has slowed the regulatory review process, delaying potential approval timelines.
If cleared, Gemini’s exchange would join a short list of regulated prediction market operators, going head-to-head with Kalshi, which already holds a CFTC license, and Polymarket, which continues to seek full U.S. compliance after its prior regulatory settlement.
Expanding Beyond Crypto Trading
The initiative comes shortly after Gemini’s September IPO, where the company outlined plans to diversify its business model beyond crypto exchange services. The firm’s shares currently trade about 40% below their debut price, making new product expansion key to regaining investor momentum.
By venturing into prediction markets, Gemini aims to attract both retail and institutional investors interested in event-driven financial exposure, an area that’s rapidly gaining traction globally.
Competitive Landscape
If approved, Gemini will compete directly with:
- Kalshi, which already offers CFTC-approved event contracts.
- Polymarket, which has grown its user base despite operating offshore.
- Robinhood, which recently partnered with Kalshi rather than pursue its own licensing.
Other major players, including Coinbase, have hinted at entering the same space as part of their “Everything Exchange” strategy. Traditional financial giants like CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) are also exploring similar event-based instruments.
Regulatory Edge and Market Outlook
Gemini’s reputation for strict regulatory compliance, highlighted by its long-standing New York BitLicense, may give it a head start in winning regulator and investor trust. Analysts note that in a sector where most competitors still face legal gray areas, Gemini’s compliance-first approach could help it secure early adoption among U.S. traders.
Despite the uncertain timeline, market observers see prediction markets as one of the next major growth frontiers in fintech. If Gemini’s application is approved, it could mark a pivotal moment for the company—transforming it from a crypto exchange into a broader regulated event-based trading platform at the intersection of finance, data, and decentralized prediction technology.
