Oil prices edged lower on Monday after Russia resumed loadings at the Novorossiysk export terminal, ending a two-day shutdown caused by a Ukrainian strike.
- Brent crude: down 19 cents (-0.3%) to $64.20
- WTI: down 18 cents (-0.3%) to $59.91
Both benchmarks had risen more than 2% on Friday after the export suspension briefly disrupted about 2% of global supply.
According to industry sources and LSEG data, Novorossiysk restarted oil loadings on Sunday. Still, Ukraine’s continued attacks on Russian refineries—including the Ryazan refinery and the Novokuibyshevsk plant in Samara—remain a major concern for the market.
Analysts say traders are now weighing how these attacks might affect Russia’s longer-term export capacity.
Scott Shelton of TP ICAP noted that early price weakness was tied to the resumed loadings, but the effect was short-lived. Toshitaka Tazawa of Fujitomi Securities added that investors are trying to assess the long-term impact of Ukraine’s strikes.
Sanctions Pressure Intensifies
Western sanctions are another major factor. The U.S. is implementing new restrictions that ban dealings with Russian oil giants Lukoil and Rosneft after Nov. 21, aiming to pressure Moscow toward peace talks.
President Donald Trump said Republicans are preparing legislation to sanction any country doing business with Russia—and warned that Iran may be added to the sanctions list.
OPEC+ Policy and Supply Outlook
OPEC+ recently agreed to raise output targets for December by 137,000 barrels per day, matching previous months, with a pause planned for early next year.
ING analysts expect the oil market to remain in surplus through 2026, but warned that Ukrainian drone attacks and Iran’s recent tanker seizure in the Gulf of Oman pose growing supply risks.
Dennis Kissler of BOK Financial said crude prices will likely remain volatile, driven by ongoing geopolitical tension and expectations of rising global supply.
Speculators Add to Long Positions
Latest CFTC data shows speculators increased net long positions in ICE Brent by 12,636 lots, reaching 164,867 lots—mostly due to short-covering, a sign of caution amid sanctions-related uncertainty.
UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo noted that although oil-on-water volumes have risen, on-land inventories have not, helping support prices. UBS expects some softness in the near term but maintains a constructive outlook for the second half of 2026.
