Oil prices held steady in early trading on Friday as investors watched two big events unfold: the U.S.-led peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, and the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on Sunday. Both could shape what happens next with global oil supply.
By 01:34 GMT, Brent crude for the nearest delivery month — which expires today — stayed flat at $63.34 a barrel after a small rise on Thursday. The more active February Brent contract dipped just two cents to $62.85.
In the U.S., West Texas Intermediate crude edged up 0.60% to $59 in the first session after the Thanksgiving break, which had paused trading yesterday.
Even with today’s stability, both Brent and WTI are on track for their fourth straight monthly loss — the longest losing streak since 2023. The main reason? There’s simply too much supply in the market, and it’s pulling prices down.
Right now, all eyes are on the diplomatic talks between Moscow and Kyiv, with Washington taking the lead. Many believe that if a peace plan moves forward, Western sanctions on Russian oil could be lifted. That would mean more barrels hitting the market — and potentially lower prices.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said the ideas being discussed by the U.S. and Ukraine could lead to real agreements, but made it clear that Russia will keep fighting if talks fall apart. He also mentioned that U.S. envoy Steve Witkopf is expected in Moscow next week.
On the other side, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed that a Ukrainian team will soon meet U.S. officials to finalize discussions on a security and peace plan previously talked about in Geneva.
Market analyst Tony Sycamore from IG noted that the constant ups and downs in these talks are making traders cautious. No one wants to make big moves until there’s real progress.
Meanwhile, two OPEC+ sources said the group will most likely keep production levels unchanged, though they may introduce a new system to measure the maximum production capacity of each member country.
Despite all the uncertainty, both Brent and WTI are still expected to close the week with gains of over 1%. Hopes for a U.S. interest rate cut — which could boost the economy and lift oil demand — helped support prices.
Oil also got a bit of help from a drop in the number of U.S. drilling rigs, which fell to their lowest level in four years. That signals future production could slow down, giving prices one more reason not to fall further — at least for now.
