The Iranian rial (toman) has entered one of its steepest declines in years, creating turbulence across the Kurdistan Region’s markets — especially the currency exchange and banking sectors that rely heavily on daily toman transactions.
📉 Exchange Rate Hits Record Low
- 100 USD = ~12.15 million tomans — an unprecedented level.
- Traders in Sulaymaniyah, Halabja, and Garmian report significant volatility and reduced market activity.
📌 What’s Driving the Decline?
1. Political Tensions – The Main Driver
Currency traders and analysts emphasize that:
- Escalating tensions between Iran vs. the U.S. and Israel have sharply increased demand for USD inside Iran.
- Political pressure is overwhelming economic fundamentals.
- According to local traders: “This drop cannot be explained by economics alone.”
2. Internal Economic Pressures
Iran is preparing several economic measures for the new year:
- Increasing fuel prices
- Raising prices of multiple local goods
- Planned salary increases for government employees
Economists warn these steps will likely: - Intensify inflation
- Add new pressure on the rial
📊 Impact on Kurdistan Region Markets
- Widespread confusion in local exchange shops.
- Many traders have reduced toman transactions or paused them entirely.
- Heavy losses among traders who were holding large amounts of tomans.
- Lower demand from customers who normally use toman for daily trade or imports from Iran.
📅 Rial’s Year of Decline (2025 Timeline)
- Start of year: ~4.8 million tomans per 100 USD
- Mid-year: ~7.5 million tomans (after new U.S. sanctions)
- Late-year: surpassed 10 million
- December: 11.15 million — lowest in more than a decade
⏳ Outlook
Analysts warn that:
- Continued political tensions
- Absence of strong economic interventions in Tehran
…could push the rial even lower in the coming weeks.
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