Bitcoin’s network is sending a signal that traders have seen before — and it usually shows up near market bottoms, not tops.
Over the past 30 days, Bitcoin’s hashrate dropped about 4%, the biggest decline since April 2024, according to a new report from VanEck. That drop came during a rough stretch for price action, with Bitcoin down around 9% and volatility jumping above 45%, the highest level this year.
In simple terms, the network is under stress.
Mining has become tougher fast. The cost to break even for a common mining machine fell sharply, from about 12 cents per kilowatt-hour late last year to roughly 7.7 cents now. At the same time, miners are earning less. Daily fee revenue dropped 14% month over month, and new wallet growth slowed slightly.
When hashrate falls like this, it usually means some miners are shutting machines off or cutting back because profits are getting squeezed.
Historically, that’s important.
VanEck points out that big hashrate drops often show up near exhaustion points, not the start of long crashes. Looking back to 2014, whenever Bitcoin’s 90-day hashrate growth turned negative, the price moved higher 77% of the time over the next six months. The average gain during those periods was about 72%.
Outside those moments, average returns were much lower.
This time around, there are also outside pressures. In China’s Xinjiang region, reports suggest around 1.3 gigawatts of mining power was shut down due to policy scrutiny. That could mean up to 10% of global hashpower went offline, affecting as many as 400,000 machines.
While miners are feeling the heat, something else is happening.
Big buyers are stepping in.
Bitcoin exchange-traded product holdings actually fell slightly last month. But corporate treasuries moved in the opposite direction. Between mid-November and mid-December, companies added about 42,000 BTC, the biggest accumulation since July.
Strategy led the charge, buying nearly 29,400 BTC. Other firms are now changing how they raise money, shifting from common stock to preferred shares to fund future Bitcoin purchases.
On-chain data shows a clear divide among holders.
Coins held for 1 to 5 years dropped sharply, especially in the 2–3 year group, which fell more than 12%. But coins held for over five years barely moved. Long-term holders are staying put.
VanEck says this setup looks familiar.
Short-term traders are getting shaken out.
Miners are under pressure.
Long-term holders aren’t selling.
In past cycles, that mix often came before calmer price action and stronger trends in the months ahead.
It doesn’t guarantee anything — but it’s a signal Bitcoin watchers have learned not to ignore.
