Kalshi is doing more than just running prediction markets now. The company has launched its own research team — and it’s already claiming better results than Wall Street.
On December 22, Kalshi announced the creation of Kalshi Research, a new in-house unit focused on studying prediction markets and turning live trading data into real forecasting tools.
The goal is simple: use what people are actually betting on to understand where the economy is headed.
Kalshi says it now holds one of the largest and most detailed datasets of prediction market activity in the world. By opening that data to researchers, the company wants to position itself not just as a trading platform, but as a serious source for economic and policy insights.
To kick things off, Kalshi is also launching its first-ever Prediction Market Conference. The event will bring together academics, traders, forecasters, and market participants to share research and findings. Scholars from Harvard, Stanford, Yale, and the University of Chicago have already joined, and registration is now open to the public.
Alongside the announcement, Kalshi released an internal study that grabbed attention.
The study compared Kalshi’s inflation forecasts to traditional Wall Street estimates — and the results were striking. According to Kalshi, its forecasts were 40% more accurate overall.
Looking at data one week before official inflation reports, Kalshi’s markets matched or beat Wall Street forecasts 85% of the time. During periods of high uncertainty, the gap grew even wider. In major “shock” events, Kalshi’s forecasts had 50% lower error, meaning they held up better when markets were stressed.
Kalshi says this makes its data useful not just for traders, but also for business leaders, policymakers, and institutions trying to prepare for sudden changes in inflation or the economy.
The research launch comes at a time when Kalshi is growing fast.
Earlier this month, the company raised $1 billion at an $11 billion valuation, following a $300 million round in October that valued it at $5 billion. Major investors include Sequoia Capital and Andreessen Horowitz.
Kalshi is also expanding its reach. Coinbase is preparing to offer prediction markets powered by Kalshi, and the company recently teamed up with Crypto.com to form the Coalition for Prediction Markets. International expansion is also planned, with multiple country launches expected within the next 18 months.
Still, challenges remain.
Kalshi continues to face regulatory pressure, including legal disputes in states like Connecticut and Nevada. These cases could create hurdles as the company grows.
Even so, Kalshi is clearly betting on one idea:
markets where people risk real money may be better at predicting the future than traditional experts — and now it wants the data to prove it.
