Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says the old idea of Bitcoin moving in big four-year boom and bust cycles may be fading away. Instead, he believes Bitcoin is now entering what he calls a “10-year grind” — a long, steady climb with solid returns, not wild explosions.
Speaking on CNBC’s Crypto World, Hougan said big forces like institutional investors, clearer rules, and the growth of stablecoins now matter more than Bitcoin’s halving cycle.
“I don’t think the four-year cycle matters as much anymore,” Hougan said. “I expect the market to go up next year. But this looks like a long, slow grind higher — strong returns, not crazy ones. Less chaos, more consistency.”
One big reason? Institutions are changing how Bitcoin trades.
Hougan pointed out that Bitcoin’s price swings have calmed down a lot. In fact, over the past year, Bitcoin has been less volatile than Nvidia stock — something that would have sounded crazy a few years ago.
Unlike retail traders, institutions don’t chase hype. They rebalance portfolios based on rules, not emotions. When prices go up, they often sell a little. When prices drop, they buy. That steady behavior smooths out the market.
“Retail investors usually buy when prices rise and panic when they fall,” Hougan explained. “Institutions do the opposite — and that stabilizes things.”
Ownership is slowly shifting from everyday traders to big players like endowments and funds. Hougan even noted that Harvard’s endowment has been buying Bitcoin while retail investors have been selling.
That shift is why Bitcoin is down about 30% from its October highs instead of crashing 60% like in past cycles.
“There’s slow, constant institutional buying underneath the market,” Hougan said. “That support is keeping prices from collapsing.”
Hougan also touched on regulation. He said the Trump administration’s actions helped clear long-standing fears, but that boost only happens once.
“In the past, institutions didn’t avoid Bitcoin because of price swings,” he said. “They stayed away because of regulation.”
Now, clearer rules could decide what happens next.
“If regulatory clarity passes, that could be the green light for the next move higher,” Hougan said. “If it doesn’t, it’ll be tough for crypto to really take off again.”
In short, Bitcoin may no longer be about fast riches every four years. Instead, it’s starting to look more like a long-term asset that climbs slowly, steadily, and with fewer heart-stopping crashes along the way.
