International transport consultant Ziad Al-Hashemi has warned that oil prices are likely to keep falling in the coming period. He said global reports from major institutions, including JPMorgan and the International Energy Agency, show that oil supply in 2026 will be higher than global demand, and that this imbalance will put more pressure on prices.
According to Al-Hashemi, oil prices have already dropped to around $57 per barrel, and they could fall further to $55 early next year. Because of this, he believes the Iraqi government must prepare the 2026 budget with caution and realism.
He explained that the new budget should be based on an oil price of no more than $51 to $52 per barrel. Setting higher prices, he warned, could push the government into a serious financial problem as revenues decline while public spending remains high.
Al-Hashemi stressed that the days of building budgets on oil prices of $70 per barrel are over. He urged the government to take strong and unusual steps to control spending and reduce inflated expenses, in order to keep a balance between oil income and other sources of revenue.
He ended by saying that the next phase requires financial realism and careful planning. Without it, Iraq could face a very large budget deficit, creating serious economic challenges for the country.
