The crypto market may not be the same as it used to be — and that could be bad news for most altcoins.
According to market analyst Inmortal, the structure of the industry has changed in a big way. Because of that, most alternative cryptocurrencies may never return to their previous all-time highs.
In the past, crypto cycles followed a more predictable pattern. Back in 2018, there were only about 1,000 cryptocurrencies trading. The market was mostly driven by retail investors. Traders would rotate between altcoins and Bitcoin, and big rallies often followed Bitcoin halving events.
That pattern continued through 2021. The four-year cycle model — tied closely to Bitcoin halvings — became widely accepted. Many traders believed prices would rise and fall in a familiar rhythm.
But things have changed.
Today, institutional investors are a major force in the market. Billions of dollars have flowed into large-cap assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. Instead of spreading capital evenly across the market, institutions are focusing mainly on these big names.
At the same time, thousands of new tokens have launched — especially in 2025. That means available liquidity is now spread across far more assets than before. When money is divided among so many coins, it becomes harder for most of them to see explosive gains.
Retail investors once believed that institutional money entering crypto would lift the entire market. But in reality, most of that capital has stayed concentrated in large, established assets.
As a result, the analyst estimates that up to 99% of altcoins may never reclaim their previous all-time highs.
The traditional four-year cycle model may also be losing its power. In earlier cycles, markets would crash sharply — sometimes 75% or more — and then move sideways for more than a year before recovering.
This time, the decline has happened much faster. However, key long-term support levels, like the 200-week moving average, have not broken down. That suggests this may not be a classic end-of-cycle collapse.
Instead of a long, painful bear market lasting 600 days or more, the analyst believes the market may have already completed 80–90% of its decline. If that’s true, the next phase could involve around 200 days of sideways consolidation before prices begin expanding again.
In simple terms, this could be a mid-cycle reset rather than a full market reset.
That would mean recovery could come earlier than many expect. But even in that case, most altcoins may still struggle. With capital focused on large-cap assets and liquidity stretched thin across thousands of tokens, the chances of smaller coins reaching past highs look slim.
For now, the market remains under pressure. But the structure underneath it has clearly changed — and that change may define how the next phase of crypto unfolds.
