Economist Timothy Peterson believes Bitcoin has a strong chance of moving higher over the next 10 months.
In a post on X, Peterson said that 50% of the past 24 months have closed in positive territory for Bitcoin. Using historical data going all the way back to 2011, his model suggests that when this happens, there is an 88% chance Bitcoin will be trading at a higher price 10 months later.
He estimates the average forward return at about 82%. If that plays out again, Bitcoin could climb to around $122,000 within the next 10 months, based on current prices.
Peterson described his model as a simple cycle tool. It doesn’t measure how big the gains were. Instead, it just counts how many months ended in the green. So even if Bitcoin moves sideways for a while, the metric could still change.
He also shared a chart showing that in the past, when the number of positive months increased, higher returns often followed.
Still, not everyone is convinced.
Some users on X called it a strong historical signal and said it could point to a major recovery by late 2026. They see the 82% projected return as a helpful guide for long-term investors.
Others were more skeptical. One user responded bluntly, saying Bitcoin doesn’t care about historical averages — suggesting that past patterns don’t guarantee future results.
