A public dispute between two prominent crypto investors has escalated into a proposed six-month wager over the future performance of Hyperliquid’s HYPE token.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has challenged Multicoin Capital co-founder Kyle Samani to a $100,000 bet tied to HYPE’s price performance. Hayes made the proposal in a post on X on Feb. 8, 2026, after responding to a series of critical comments from Samani about the Hyperliquid project.
Under the terms outlined by Hayes, the bet would run from 00:00 UTC on Feb. 10 through 00:00 UTC on July 31, 2026. During that period, HYPE would need to outperform any altcoin with a market capitalization above $1 billion, based on CoinGecko data. Samani would be allowed to choose the comparison token. Rather than paying each other directly, the losing party would donate $100,000 to a charity selected by the winner.
The proposed wager comes as Hyperliquid and its native token remain in focus among derivatives traders, even as broader crypto markets continue to face volatility and subdued sentiment.
The dispute follows weeks of criticism from Samani, who has questioned Hyperliquid’s structure, governance, and overall design. In recent posts, he argued that the platform’s code is not fully open source, relies on a permissioned distribution model, and is led by a founder who relocated abroad to build the business. Samani has also alleged that the platform could facilitate criminal activity and has described the project as fundamentally flawed.
Hayes has pushed back against those claims and framed the disagreement in purely market terms. He argued that if HYPE is truly a weak asset, it should fail to outperform other large-cap altcoins over the proposed timeframe. Conversely, strong performance would, in his view, undermine the criticism directed at the project.
The debate has drawn wider attention after analyst Jon Charbonneau praised Hyperliquid’s execution quality, comparing its trading performance favorably with traditional venues such as CME. His comments helped reignite discussion over whether newer on-chain derivatives platforms can realistically compete with established centralized exchanges.
As of the latest reports, Samani has not publicly confirmed whether he will accept the wager.
The challenge has also attracted interest because of Hayes’ recent trading activity. On-chain data shows that in early February 2026, Hayes spent roughly $1.91 million to purchase 57,881 HYPE tokens, bringing his total holdings to about 131,807 tokens, valued at approximately $4.3 million at the time. These purchases followed the sale of positions in PENDLE, ENA, and LDO, signaling a renewed focus on Hyperliquid. Hayes had previously sold around 96,600 HYPE tokens in September 2025 for roughly $5.1 million, taking profits amid concerns about token unlocks and rising competition.
At the same time, wallet data suggests that addresses linked to Multicoin began accumulating HYPE in late January 2026. Reports indicate that more than 87,100 ETH was exchanged for roughly 1.35 million HYPE tokens, worth over $40 million at the time, through intermediaries such as Galaxy Digital. This accumulation occurred while Samani continued to publicly criticize the project, adding complexity to the narrative. In early February, Samani stepped back from day-to-day management at Multicoin and moved into an advisory role, a shift some observers believe may have influenced the fund’s recent positioning.
For now, Hayes’ proposed bet stands as a rare and highly public test of conviction in the crypto market, where strong opinions often coexist with opaque capital flows. Whether or not Samani accepts the challenge, the episode has renewed attention on Hyperliquid and its place in the rapidly evolving crypto derivatives landscape.
