Barclays is taking a cautious view on crypto in 2026, calling it a slow and transitional year rather than a big growth phase.
In a new research report, the bank said crypto exchanges are likely to feel pressure as retail traders pull back and spot trading volumes continue to fall. According to Barclays, this drop in everyday trading could make 2026 a weak year for platforms that still depend heavily on spot fees.
The bank pointed out that retail trading has been the backbone of past crypto booms. Big price swings and hype once pulled in waves of new traders. That energy has faded. Fewer people are trading regularly, prices are moving less, and there’s not much right now to bring retail traders rushing back.
Platforms like Coinbase and Robinhood are feeling the impact. Barclays said spot trading, which is still a major source of revenue, looks set for a down year in 2026. The analysts added that they don’t see a clear trigger that would reverse this trend anytime soon.
Barclays also noted that crypto markets usually react to big moments, like regulatory decisions or political shifts. In the past, events such as the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 and a pro-crypto U.S. election result sparked strong rallies. But the bank doesn’t see similar catalysts lining up for 2026.
On regulation, Barclays sees some hope—but not fast results. The bank highlighted the proposed U.S. CLARITY Act, which aims to clearly define whether digital assets fall under securities or commodities rules. Clearer laws could support new, compliant products over time, especially in tokenized assets. Still, Barclays warned that progress will likely be slow and won’t immediately boost trading or earnings.
Coinbase received special attention in the report. While the exchange is pushing into new areas like derivatives, tokenized stocks, and acquisitions to diversify its business, Barclays cut its price target on the stock. The reason: shrinking spot volumes and rising costs, even as Coinbase invests for the future.
Tokenization remains a long-term bright spot. Big names like BlackRock and Robinhood are testing tokenized assets, and interest is growing across both crypto firms and traditional finance. But Barclays said these projects are still early and unlikely to make a meaningful difference to revenues in 2026.
Even with a more crypto-friendly political climate in the U.S., Barclays believes much of that optimism is already priced into the market. Any real impact from new laws would take time and could face delays or legal hurdles.
In short, Barclays sees 2026 as a year of adjustment for crypto. Growth may be limited, retail activity may stay weak, and companies will likely focus on building infrastructure, staying compliant, and preparing for longer-term opportunities rather than expecting quick wins.
