A new report from CryptoQuant suggests that Bitcoin may be moving toward a supply shock phase. The idea is simple: retail investors are selling, while long-term holders are keeping their coins untouched.
At the time of the report, Bitcoin was trading around $69,446. Blockchain data shows that about 71% of Bitcoin UTXOs are still in profit, while roughly 28% are currently at a loss.
UTXOs—short for unspent transaction outputs—are coins that haven’t moved since their last transaction. Analysts often use them to understand how profitable Bitcoin holders are across the network.
According to CryptoQuant, the selling pressure right now is mostly coming from short-term retail traders. Data from the Spent Output Profit Ratio for short-term holders (SOPR-STH) is around 0.97, which means many of them are selling their Bitcoin at a loss during market volatility.
Meanwhile, large investors, often called “whales,” are mostly inactive. Older Bitcoin holdings have barely moved on the blockchain, suggesting that long-term and institutional investors are still holding onto their coins.
Another key point is that Bitcoin reserves on exchanges have dropped by about 204,000 BTC in 2026. When fewer coins are available on exchanges, the tradable supply tightens.
Analysts say this combination—retail selling, whale dormancy, and shrinking exchange supply—could eventually create a supply crunch that pushes Bitcoin prices higher if demand continues to grow.
