Bitwise Asset Management has filed with regulators to launch a new family of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tied to U.S. political prediction markets, expanding its push into alternative and event-driven investment products.
The preliminary prospectus, dated Feb. 17, outlines a proposed ETF series under the “PredictionShares” brand. The filing was first highlighted by Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart.
The registration statement is not yet effective, meaning the securities cannot be sold unless and until approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Election-focused ETFs
According to the filing, the proposed funds would track specific U.S. political outcomes, including:
- Whether Democrats or Republicans win the 2028 presidential election
- Control of the House and Senate in the 2026 midterm elections
Rather than investing in companies connected to prediction platforms, the ETFs would directly hold regulated event-based contracts. These contracts pay out based on real-world outcomes — such as which party wins a specific election.
Bitwise says the PredictionShares structure would give investors exposure to political prediction markets through traditional brokerage accounts, without needing to use specialized trading platforms.
Growing interest in prediction markets
Interest in political prediction markets has risen sharply in recent election cycles. Platforms such as Polymarket have recorded significant trading volumes during major political events.
Supporters argue that prediction markets can sometimes reflect shifting public sentiment faster than traditional polling. Critics, however, warn that these products can behave like high-risk speculative bets.
Vitalik Buterin has previously cautioned that prediction markets are inherently volatile and may encourage speculative behavior rather than long-term investment.
Competition and regulatory questions
Bitwise is not alone. Roundhill Investments and GraniteShares have filed similar election-based ETF proposals, though none have yet received SEC approval.
Regulators are still evaluating how event-based political contracts fit within existing securities and derivatives frameworks. The SEC has also signaled that certain prediction market products may fall under securities laws, adding another layer of uncertainty.
If approved, the PredictionShares ETFs would represent a significant step in bringing political event-based trading into mainstream, regulated investment vehicles — but approval remains far from guaranteed.
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