Economic expert Manar al-Ubaidi says that for most Iraqis today, the dollar exchange rate has become the main way they judge the economy.
The reason, he explains, is simple: people don’t really trust official numbers like inflation, unemployment, or GDP. There isn’t enough transparency, and the way those figures are calculated isn’t clear, so the dollar rate ends up feeling more real and more reliable.
In a Facebook post, al-Ubaidi said that movements in the dollar don’t always mean prices are actually rising or falling. The exchange rate is only one factor behind inflation, not the whole story.
He explained that Iraq’s parallel market is driven by supply and demand, and several forces push demand higher. Iraq imports more than $70 billion worth of goods every year, relies heavily on informal trade, pays for many foreign services, and still prices major sectors — like cars and real estate — in dollars.
According to al-Ubaidi, Iraq’s dollar problem is mainly a supply issue, not just a pricing one. The country has very limited sources of foreign currency, mostly coming from the Central Bank, while other sources like investment, tourism, and remittances from Iraqis abroad remain weak or missing.
He concluded by saying the solution isn’t as simple as changing the official exchange rate.
Real stability, he said, comes from balancing supply and demand. That means cutting unnecessary imports, expanding trade financing, and encouraging investment and tourism. If those steps are taken, the dinar can stabilize — without putting more pressure on ordinary citizens.
