Investors are gearing up for the Federal Reserve’s last FOMC meeting of 2025, scheduled for December 9–10, which could set the tone for markets in early 2026.
The policy statement will be released at 2:00 p.m. ET on December 10, followed by Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. Meeting minutes will come out three weeks later, on January 8, 2026.
What’s on the table
Markets are pricing in an 87% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut, taking the federal funds rate down to 3.50%–3.75%. The current rate sits at 3.75%–4.00% after the October cut. Fed officials are divided, though, with some urging caution due to mixed inflation data and strong economic growth. Analysts will be watching the updated dot plot, which could hint at further rate cuts in 2026 if inflation continues to ease.
The meeting will also confirm the end of quantitative tightening, which wrapped up a $95 billion monthly reduction in Treasury and mortgage-backed securities. This could add more liquidity to markets over time.
What it means for crypto and risk assets
Cryptocurrencies are especially sensitive to Fed moves. Lower rates and more liquidity usually push investors toward riskier assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other altcoins. A 25-point cut could see Bitcoin climbing toward $95,000–$100,000, with Ethereum and Solana moving higher too.
But if the Fed signals caution instead of easing, Bitcoin could fall back to $87,000–$90,000, and altcoins might take a hit as traders adjust leveraged positions. Options data suggest market volatility could spike 20–30% during Powell’s remarks, showing just how closely investors are watching the Fed.
Whatever happens on December 10, the decision is likely to influence markets and investor sentiment well into the start of 2026.
