Between Revenue Promises And Deficit Realities… What Does Increasing Iraq’s Oil Share Mean?
Baghdad Today – Baghdad Iraq’s eyes are once again turning to oil markets, where every adjustment to production quotas represents a potential opportunity to alleviate the financial pressures weighing on the budget.
With an annual deficit exceeding tens of trillions of dinars, and a rising wage bill and government subsidies, any increase in oil revenues appears to be a temporary respite that allows Baghdad to cover its urgent obligations.
Economist Nabil Al-Marsoumi explained in a Facebook post, followed by Baghdad Today, that
“OPEC Plus will add 137,000 barrels per day to its production starting next October, and that Iraq’s share will increase by 17,000 barrels per day, bringing its total production to 4,137,000 barrels per day,” indicating limited gains that could help alleviate part of the growing deficit.
The increase indicated by Al-Marsoumi came following a virtual meeting of eight OPEC+ countries, including:
Saudi Arabia,
Russia,
Iraq, the
UAE,
Kuwait,
Kazakhstan,
Algeria, and
Oman.
The joint statement issued by the meeting emphasized “commitment to market stability in light of declining inventories and a stable global economic outlook,” and emphasized that the production adjustment of 137,000 barrels per day represents part of a gradual return from previous voluntary cuts that began in 2023.
Analysts believe this move reflects the group’s desire to maintain price balance without shocking the market.
But the most important question for Iraq, as experts pose, is:
To what extent will this limited increase in production be reflected in reducing the fiscal deficit?
Experts assert that “increased revenues may give Iraq a little breathing room,”but the reality reveals that any increase remains conditional on stable oil prices on global markets and on Baghdad’s ability to manage resources without waste.
Given the country’s continued reliance on oil as its primary source of revenue,
the economy remains vulnerable to fluctuations, and
fear persists that any price crisis could turn into a new financial burden.
This logic brings to the forefront criticisms of the nature of Iraq’s rentier economy.
Additional revenues, while important, do not necessarily address the deep structure of the economy.
Analysts believe that the near-exclusive reliance on oil revenues makes the country hostage to
OPEC+ decisions and global market prices, leaving economic development dependent on external circumstances rather than domestic production capacity.
The question here is repeated:
Is it enough for Iraq to “breathe a little” whenever its production share increases?
Or does the deeper problem lie in the absence of an economic strategy that addresses the structural deficit, independent of oil revenues?
In addition to these concerns, risks related to international politics are also present.
Iraqi oil-exporting companies, most notably SOMO, may be subject to further pressure after the United States recently imposed sanctions on Iraqi businessmen accused of “mixing and smuggling Iranian oil with Iraqi oil.”
Experts warn that any sanctions targeting SOMO could undermine the gains from the anticipated increase in production and put Iraq directly at odds with new complications related to accessing global markets.
Between a slight increase in production, ongoing financial pressures, and growing political risks, the Iraqi landscape remains gripped by a complex paradox: additional revenues capable of temporarily reducing the deficit, a rentier economy that reproduces its crises with every oil cycle, and an international system that closely monitors and clamps down on any loopholes in smuggling and oil mixing. https://baghdadtoday.news/282724-.html
Iraq’s Oil Exports To The US Achieve Weekly Gains.
Economy | 07/09/2025 Mawazine News – Follow-up : Iraqi oil exports to the United States increased last week.
The US Energy Information Administration said that “US crude oil imports from nine major countries averaged 5.859 million barrels per day last week, up 169,000 barrels per day from the previous week, which averaged 5.690 million barrels per day.”
It added that “Iraq’s oil exports to the US averaged 303,000 barrels, up 166,000 barrels per day from the previous week, which averaged 137,000 barrels per day.”
It continued, “The largest oil revenues to the US last week came from Canada, at an average of 3.836 million barrels per day, followed by Mexico, at an average of 407,000 barrels per day, Saudi Arabia, at an average of 325,000 barrels, and Colombia, at an average of 321,000 barrels per day.” https://www.mawazin.net/Details.aspx?jimare=266362
Ministry Of Planning: The Development Plan Focused On Activating Non-Oil Revenues.
Buratha News Agency144 2025-09-06 The Ministry of Planning confirmed, on Saturday, that the five-year development plan is flexible and responsive to variables, including economic, security and climate crises, and gives priority to service projects, noting that the development plan focused on activating non-oil revenues.
The spokesperson for the Ministry of Planning, Abdul Zahra Al-Hindawi, told the official agency, “Planning takes into account all variables and sets the worst possible scenarios for occurrence, in order to at least reduce their effects and overcome them.
” He explained that “the five-year development plan, which was launched at the end of last year and extends until 2028, took into account global changes, price fluctuations and the state of (uncertainty) resulting from political crises and wars, all of which have their effects on Iraq, given that it is part of the global system that is affected and is affected through imports, exports and oil.”
He added, “The ministry has moved towards activating non-oil activities, such as agriculture, industry, and tourism, in addition to developing the tax system and maximizing revenues from various sources, to reduce the impact of global and even domestic variables.
He emphasized, “The plan was developed to be flexible, applicable, and participatory, and we have identified two main paths in it: innovation in addressing problems, and programming development action, thus achieving a balance between variables and constants.”
Al-Hindawi also pointed out that “the Ministry of Planning includes projects within plans, whether regional development plans for governorates or the investment program for ministries and entities not affiliated with a ministry. No project is implemented unless it is included within the plan by the ministry, after preparing a feasibility study.
” He pointed out that “the project that is included and implemented by the relevant entity, the ministry’s task is to follow up on implementation and point out any errors or deviations, and then issue letters and directives to the relevant entities regarding the reasons for the delay.”
He also explained that “some projects are stalled due to problems between the implementing company and the beneficiary, and these are factors the ministry is working to address in coordination with relevant authorities.” He emphasized that “the ministry is working in light of the government program and its priorities, as the program has given priority to projects of a service nature, such as sewage, water, and school projects.”
Al-Hindawi also stressed that “education comes first, followed by road projects, then industrial and agricultural projects,” explaining that “priorities are also determined based on the development gap between one governorate and another.
If a governorate suffers from a problem with sewage networks, this sector is given priority, while if another governorate suffers from a problem with drinking water, water projects are given priority. All of this is done based on the development and spatial gap in services and projects.” https://burathanews.com/arabic/economic/464719
For current and reliable Iraqi news please visit: https://www.bondladyscorner.com
