Oil prices moved higher on Thursday after falling for two straight days. The bounce came after U.S. data showed a much bigger drop in crude stockpiles than expected, giving traders a reason to step back in and buy. At the same time, markets are keeping a close eye on what’s happening in Venezuela.
Brent crude rose 24 cents, or about 0.4%, to trade near $60.20 a barrel. U.S. crude, known as WTI, climbed 22 cents to around $56.21 a barrel.
Earlier in the week, both oil benchmarks had dropped more than 1% as worries about too much global supply continued to hang over the market. Analysts, including those at Morgan Stanley, are warning that the world could be oversupplied by as much as 3 million barrels per day in the first half of 2026.
That recent price drop encouraged some traders to buy oil futures at lower levels. According to Mitsuru Muraishi, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities, this kind of “pullback buying” helped prices tick higher.
Still, he warned that the upside is limited. Oversupply remains a big concern, and while Venezuela is drawing attention, the overall trend still looks weak. He even expects U.S. crude prices to dip below $54 in the near term.
On the supply side, U.S. crude inventories fell sharply. Government data showed stockpiles dropped by 3.8 million barrels last week, far more than the small increase analysts had expected. That surprise helped support prices.
Meanwhile, Venezuela is adding more uncertainty to the market. The U.S. seized two oil tankers linked to Venezuela in the Atlantic, including one flying a Russian flag. This move is part of President Donald Trump’s push to control oil flows in the region and pressure Venezuela’s socialist government.
Washington also announced a deal with Caracas that would allow the U.S. to access up to $2 billion worth of Venezuelan oil. According to Trump, Venezuela will hand over 30 to 50 million barrels of oil that had been blocked by sanctions.
Analysts say this deal could ease pressure on Venezuela, which has struggled to move oil because sanctioned tankers can’t easily leave the country. Sending oil to the U.S. could help prevent production cuts caused by limited storage.
Some of that oil was originally headed to China, meaning shipments may now be rerouted. Chinese refiners could turn to Iranian oil to replace the lost supply.
Looking ahead, Trump and his advisers are reportedly planning a long-term strategy to gain influence over Venezuela’s oil industry. Trump believes this could help drive oil prices down toward $50 a barrel.
One proposal being discussed would give the U.S. a role in managing Venezuela’s state oil company, PDVSA, including controlling and selling much of its oil production.
For now, oil prices are bouncing—but big supply concerns and political moves mean the market remains on shaky ground.
