Oil prices stall before critical US-Iran talks

Oil prices barely moved on Monday as traders waited to see what happens next between the United States and Iran.

Brent crude was up just 3 cents, trading at $67.78 a barrel early in the session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 2 cents to $62.91. There was no official WTI settlement because of a U.S. holiday.

Last week, both benchmarks ended lower. Brent slipped about 0.5%, while WTI dropped 1%. Prices fell after U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington could reach a deal with Tehran within the next month.

Now, investors are watching closely. The U.S. and Iran are set to hold a second round of talks in Geneva on Tuesday. The discussions aim to ease tensions over Iran’s nuclear program and avoid another military conflict.

An Iranian diplomat said over the weekend that Tehran is seeking a deal that brings economic benefits to both sides. Energy, mining investments, and even aircraft purchases are reportedly on the table.

Still, expectations are low.

Analysts say both countries are likely to stick to their main demands, which makes a quick agreement unlikely. One market analyst described the current moment as “the calm before the storm.”

At the same time, the U.S. has sent a second aircraft carrier to the region. Officials have said Washington is preparing for the possibility of a longer military campaign if talks fail. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have warned they would strike back at U.S. bases if Iran is attacked.

All of this adds tension to the oil market.

Meanwhile, OPEC and its allies — known as OPEC+ — are considering increasing production again starting in April. The group had paused output hikes for three months. The possible increase is meant to meet strong summer demand, but it could also add more supply to the market.

Trading activity is expected to stay light. China, South Korea, and Taiwan are closed for Lunar New Year holidays, and U.S. markets are observing Presidents Day.

With less liquidity in the market, price moves could be sharp and unpredictable.

For now, oil is stuck between two forces: rising geopolitical tension that could push prices up, and the possibility of more supply from OPEC+ that could push them down.

In the short term, traders will be watching headlines from the U.S.-Iran talks and upcoming inventory data. Those two factors are likely to drive the next big move.