Offshore prediction platform Polymarket has archived a contract that allowed users to bet on the likelihood of a nuclear weapon detonation within specific timeframes. The removal follows mounting public and political scrutiny over “death-linked” and war-related markets.
The archived nuclear contract had previously drawn significant attention, with over $1.7 million wagered on a 2025 expiry and updated odds suggesting roughly a 22% probability of detonation by year-end. The market sparked widespread criticism on social media, from analysts, and lawmakers due to concerns that insiders with access to military or policy information could exploit the platform.
During recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, Polymarket’s geopolitical markets saw more than $529 million in bets related to the timing and outcomes of the attacks. Blockchain surveillance analysts flagged wallets that profited over $1 million by betting just hours before strikes, raising ethical and legal questions about unregulated markets.
U.S. senators are now urging regulatory oversight, and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is advancing rulemaking to clarify supervision of prediction platforms. Polymarket has not publicly explained the removal of the nuclear market, though it has emphasized the general value of aggregated market insights. The move underscores growing concerns over ethics, transparency, and potential exploitation in crypto prediction markets.
