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Global Trade Set to Break Records in 2025 as Flows Surge Past $35 Trillion
Goods and services expansion underscores resilience amid global restructuring
Overview
- Global trade in goods and services is on track to exceed $35 trillion in 2025, marking the highest level on record.
- Trade flows are expected to rise by approximately $2.2 trillion, or 7%, compared with 2024, reflecting continued expansion through the second half of the year.
- Services trade is growing faster than goods, highlighting structural shifts in global commerce.
Key Developments
- Trade in goods is projected to contribute roughly $1.5 trillion to overall growth, supported by resilient supply chains and continued demand.
- Services trade is expected to expand by about $750 billion, nearly 9%, reinforcing its rising importance in global trade flows.
- UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) forecasts continued growth into the fourth quarter of 2025, though at a slower pace.
- Quarterly growth is expected to moderate to 0.5% for goods and 2% for services, signaling stabilization rather than contraction.
- The sustained expansion reflects adaptive trade networks, even as geopolitical fragmentation and policy realignment persist.
Why It Matters
Record-breaking global trade levels suggest that despite geopolitical tensions, sanctions, and supply chain reconfiguration, the global economy continues to function through diversified trade corridors. This resilience supports economic activity but also masks underlying shifts in trade settlement, currency use, and regional alignment.
Why It Matters to Foreign Currency Holders
As trade volumes expand, currency demand increasingly follows trade settlement preferences rather than legacy reserve norms. Growth in services and diversified trade routes may accelerate the use of non-dollar currencies, increasing volatility and repricing risk for foreign currency holders tied to traditional trade settlement systems.
Implications for the Global Reset
- Pillar: Trade System Resilience
Record trade volumes demonstrate that global commerce is adapting rather than collapsing, even as structures are redesigned. - Pillar: Currency Realignment
Expanding trade flows create pressure for alternative settlement mechanisms and regional currency usage beyond the dollar-centric system.
This is not just politics — it’s global finance restructuring before our eyes.
Seeds of Wisdom Team
Newshounds News™ Exclusive
Sources
- UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) – “Global Trade Update (December 2025): Global trade poised for a record-breaking 2025 as flows expected to surge past $35 trillion”
- UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) – Global Trade Updates
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Industrial Metals Rally on Tight Supply and Demand Dynamics
Copper near record highs underpins bullish industrial metals narrative
Overview
- Copper prices are trading within striking distance of all-time highs amid renewed tight supply concerns and structural demand growth. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange rose to about $11,837 per ton, approaching the record $11,952 level set recently.
- Bullish outlook persists even as the U.S. dollar strengthens slightly, with week-to-date gains and continued year-to-date strength (up ~35% in 2025).
Key Developments
- Analysts from Goldman Sachs highlighted unique supply constraints as a core driver of the rally and reiterated long-term structural demand, citing copper as a favored industrial metal.
- Aluminium reached multi-year highs, supported by both energy transition and infrastructure demand, while other base metals including tin and lead saw upward pressure.
- Nickel prices climbed modestly after Indonesia proposed output cuts, tightening markets for battery and alloy metals.
- A stronger U.S. dollar capped further gains, highlighting currency dynamics in commodity pricing.
Why It Matters
Copper’s sustained rally signals deeper shifts in global industrial demand — particularly for electrification, renewable infrastructure, and data-center capacity — while constrained mine supply underscores structural inflexibility in raw materials that are critical to the energy transition.
Why It Matters to Foreign Currency Holders
Rising real asset prices like copper often reflect weakening confidence in fiat currencies, driving investors toward tangible commodities. For holders of foreign currencies, such strength can signal inflation hedging behavior and reallocation of capital into hard assets.
Implications for the Global Reset
- Pillar: Transition-Asset Realignment
Surge in critical industrial metals reflects fundamental rebalancing towards energy transition priorities and infrastructure buildout. - Pillar: Monetary Risk Hedging
Persistent metals strength amidst currency dynamics highlights deepening investor preference for real assets over sovereign debt.
This is not just markets — it’s structural demand shaping future global capital flows.
Seeds of Wisdom Team
Newshounds News™ Exclusive
Sources
- Reuters – Copper nears record high as supply tightness back in focus
- Reuters/Commodity price data wrap – Copper prices rise as tight supply is in focus
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Fed Withdraws Crypto Banking Ban, Opening Door for Digital Asset Innovation
Regulatory shift empowers state-chartered banks to engage with digital asset services
Overview
- The U.S. Federal Reserve Board has officially withdrawn its 2023 policy statement that restricted state-chartered banks from engaging in certain cryptocurrency and innovative banking activities. The action marks a significant pivot toward enabling responsible financial innovation.
- The withdrawn guidance had effectively limited state member banks, including uninsured banks, by tying them to the same narrow activity set as national banks.
- The new policy framework creates a pathway for both insured and uninsured state-supervised banks to pursue novel activities — including digital asset services — so long as they satisfy supervisory and risk-management standards.
Key Developments
- The 2023 policy statement — rescinded in December 2025 — had been viewed as a de facto barrier to crypto-related services by state-chartered banks, including payments, stablecoin support, and brokerage functions.
- Under the new framework, state member banks may seek approval to offer innovative activities not previously permissible, provided they meet safety and soundness requirements.
- Uninsured state banks particularly benefit, as the previous regime limited their access to Federal Reserve membership and payment infrastructure.
- The Board’s shift reflects an evolved understanding of financial technologies and a desire to balance innovation with systemic stability.
- Industry leaders have framed the move as a major regulatory pivot that could expand institutional participation in digital assets through the regulated banking system.
Why It Matters
This withdrawal of restrictive guidance signals a meaningful shift in the U.S. central bank’s approach to digital finance. By carving out an explicit route for state-chartered banks to engage in digital asset activities, the Fed is potentially integrating blockchain-based services more directly into the regulated financial system — a move that could reshape market structure and institutional participation in crypto-related markets.
Why It Matters to Foreign Currency Holders
The integration of digital asset capabilities into mainstream banking has implications for currency holders globally. As traditional financial institutions begin to support crypto and tokenized services under regulated frameworks, demand patterns for alternative settlement mechanisms, cross-border payments, and digital liquidity pools may evolve, pressuring established currency systems and reserve assets.
Implications for the Global Reset
- Pillar: Regulatory Integration of Digital Finance
Enabling banks to engage in digital asset services under supervision bridges the divide between traditional finance and emerging technologies. - Pillar: Financial System Evolution
The policy shift accelerates the normalization of digital asset markets within regulated banking systems, potentially influencing global capital flows and monetary treatment of crypto-based instruments.
This is not just policy — it’s the structural integration of digital finance into the global banking architecture.
Seeds of Wisdom Team
Newshounds News™ Exclusive
Sources
- Federal Reserve Board – Federal Reserve Board withdraws 2023 policy statement and issues new policy statement regarding the treatment of certain Board-supervised banks
- Yahoo Finance – Fed scraps 2023 crypto banking policy, opens access to digital asset activities
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EV Metals Complex Under Strain as Battery Materials Lose Charge
Oversupply and tech shifts reshape metals trade and supply chains
Overview
- Battery metals like lithium, nickel and cobalt are facing a third consecutive difficult year despite strong EV adoption, as oversupply and shifting battery chemistries weigh on prices and demand.
- EV sales rose ~21% year-over-year, yet not all metals are benefiting equally due to evolving battery technology preferences.
Key Developments
- Chinese companies advancing LFP and sodium-ion battery tech are displacing traditional nickel-cobalt chemistries, reducing demand pressures for those metals.
- Nickel and cobalt markets are oversupplied, with elevated LME warehouse stocks and lagging demand growth compared to early-cycle forecasts.
- Lithium remains dominant but is facing emerging competition from new chemistries, challenging traditional demand assumptions.
- Copper and aluminum stand out as enduring winners, vital for wiring, infrastructure and vehicle construction even as battery mix shifts.
Why It Matters
The disconnect between EV sales momentum and lagging battery-metal pricing highlights how technological shifts and supply imbalances are redefining commodity demand patterns, with implications for producers, national export strategies and capital allocation.
Why It Matters to Foreign Currency Holders
Oversupplied metal markets amid evolving demand can temper inflationary pressures on input costs while signaling deeper structural shifts in trade flows for critical minerals — influencing currency valuations in commodity-dependent economies.
Implications for the Global Reset
- Pillar: Strategic Resource Realignment
Technology-driven demand patterns force a rethinking of mineral investment and supply chain strategies globally. - Pillar: Trade Flow Reconfiguration
Oversupply in traditional battery metals may redirect flows toward alternative critical commodities and produce new geopolitical dependencies.
This is not just technology — it’s a new blueprint for industrial commodities in a post-transition economy.
Seeds of Wisdom Team
Newshounds News™ Exclusive
Sources
- Reuters – EV revolution rolls on but battery metals lose their charge
- Reuters – Commodities Market Headlines: battery metals under pressure
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