The U.S. capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro didn’t just shake Venezuela. It sent shockwaves across the world—especially in prediction markets, where traders are now betting on political chaos spreading far beyond Caracas.
What the U.S. calls a targeted law-enforcement operation quickly turned into something much bigger. To traders, Maduro’s removal looks like a signal. A warning. A sign that long-standing power structures in fragile or hostile countries might suddenly crack.
Almost immediately after Maduro and his wife were flown to New York to face federal narco-terrorism charges, crypto traders went to work. They didn’t just focus on Venezuela. They started asking: Who’s next?
On Polymarket, where people bet on real-world events using crypto, more than $1 million was wagered in just one day on contracts tied to Iran’s leadership. One market asking whether Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, would be removed showed fast-rising odds. Traders priced an 11% chance by the end of January, 34% by mid-2026, and nearly 47% by the end of next year.
That fear didn’t stop there. Bets on whether Israel would strike Iran by March 31, 2026 jumped sharply—nearly to a coin flip—in a single day. Traders clearly linked the Venezuela shock to bigger risks building in the Middle East.
Back in Venezuela, uncertainty is still intense. A Polymarket contract on who will lead the country by the end of 2026 has already pulled in nearly $900,000 in bets. Right now, interim president Delcy Rodríguez leads with about a 44% chance. Opposition figures María Corina Machado and Edmundo González follow in the mid-teens, while Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López trails far behind.
Part of this interest comes from reports that U.S. officials may prefer a “stability-first” approach—keeping power within Venezuela’s current system rather than forcing a total reset. That idea has traders leaning toward continuity, not revolution.
And now the spotlight is moving again.
President Trump’s off-hand comments have thrown fuel on markets tied to Cuba and Colombia. Speaking aboard Air Force One, he said a military operation in Colombia “sounds good” and suggested Cuba looks “ready to fall.”
Later, Trump doubled down, saying Cuba “could be next,” pointing to its heavy reliance on Venezuelan oil and money. Prediction markets reacted fast. A Polymarket bet on Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel leaving office by June now shows a 20% chance—down sharply from 61% just days earlier, when news of Maduro’s capture first broke.
Colombia is also in the mix. After Trump floated the idea of an “Operation Colombia” and criticized President Gustavo Petro, traders priced about a 15% chance Petro is out by June. By the end of the year, that number exploded—at one point touching 95%.
For traders, this is no longer just about Venezuela.
Maduro’s fall has become a blueprint—fair or not—for betting on political breakdown across the world. One arrest has turned into a global stress test, and prediction markets are now pricing a future that looks far more unstable than it did just days ago.
