Tishwash: Oil above $100… Hormuz disrupts supplies and there is no clear agreement with Iran
Global oil prices have surged above $100 a barrel, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East and reduced oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most vital energy chokepoints.
Brent Crude has fluctuated between $103 and $110 a barrel in recent days, experiencing sharp volatility linked to developments on the ground and political statements regarding Iran. Recent data indicates that Brent reached $107 today (March 30, 2026), an increase of more than 2%.
The Strait of Hormuz: A Troubled Artery.
Shipping traffic through the strait has slowed considerably, with limited passage of oil tankers, particularly from Asian countries, amid cautious routes suggesting tacit coordination with Iran.
Reports have also indicated a significant drop in activity, with direct threats to block the passage of ships associated with “enemies,” as Iran has designated them. These “enemies” include countries linked to the United States and Israel, according to the Iranian classification, which also encompasses Gulf states. This has led markets to price in scenarios of a severe supply shortage.
Is there an agreement with Iran?
Despite US President Donald Trump’s announcement of “promising opportunities” for reaching an agreement, Tehran denied the existence of direct negotiations, confirming only contacts through intermediaries, thus maintaining a state of uncertainty in the market.
This discrepancy between political statements and the reality on the ground has led markets to react cautiously, with prices rising with any escalation and temporarily declining with talk of a possible de-escalation. Regarding
Basra oil and tankers
, there are still no clear indications of a complete stabilization of oil tanker traffic in the Gulf, including Iraqi exports from Basra ports, as shipping remains directly linked to the level of tension in the Strait of Hormuz.
According to current data, tanker transit is limited and cautious, and no full or safe return to normal export operations has been announced, despite the Iraqi side’s announcement of reaching an agreement with Iran regarding allowing Iraqi oil to transit through Hormuz.
According to reports up to March 30, 2026, at least one oil tanker carrying Iraqi crude had transited the Strait of Hormuz since the outbreak of regional tensions that led to its de facto closure.
The supertanker “Omega Trader,” operated by a Japanese company, successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz carrying two million barrels of Iraqi oil.
The tanker arrived in Mumbai, India, suggesting that the transit was arranged specifically to serve the Indian market.
In mid-March, the Iraqi oil minister announced ongoing communication with Iran to secure passage for some tankers to alleviate the oil glut. However, the transit remains very limited and does not represent a full resumption of exports.
Iran stipulates that tankers must not be affiliated with the United States or Israel to be permitted passage, and limited exceptions have been granted to countries such as India, Pakistan, and China. link
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Tishwash: Three sources of payroll funding: A new strategy to counter global financial shocks
Amid a turbulent international scene, Baghdad is sending reassuring messages to millions of employees and those covered by the welfare network, stressing that the compass of living stability will not be affected by the tremors of energy markets or the winds of regional crises.
Relying on a combination of digital transformation of tax collection, capitalizing on the oil price boom, and a solid cash reserve, represents a financial “buffer zone” through which Iraq seeks to secure the livelihood of its citizens, away from the repercussions of the surrounding political and military conflicts.
Countering global financial shocks
In this regard, the Prime Minister’s financial advisor, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, confirmed on Tuesday that the current policy guarantees the continuation of salaries and social welfare grants. While he identified three main sources to ensure the sustainability of salaries and social spending, he indicated that Iraq is capable of facing global financial and economic shocks efficiently and effectively.
Saleh said: “Ensuring the sustainability of monthly expenditures for salaries, wages, pensions, and social welfare allowances, in light of the current economic challenges and global fluctuations due to geopolitical risks , is a top priority, and depends on three main sources of revenue that guarantee the protection of the living and social stability of citizens on a regular monthly basis.”
Maximize revenues
He explained that “the first source is maximizing non-oil revenues, as ensuring the liquidity of collecting these revenues is achieved by intensifying approved electronic payment methods, which enhances the state’s own financial resources and reduces total dependence on oil revenues.”
Expanding the oil export base
Saleh added that “the second source is expanding the base of crude oil and petroleum product exports. This policy includes using traditional export channels whenever possible, including land and sea transport through neighboring countries, according to current global oil prices, which have seen an increase of nearly 70% compared to their levels before the outbreak of tensions in the Gulf and Middle East region.”
He pointed out that “this export expansion, in light of high crude oil prices, contributes to boosting the revenues needed to cover social spending and ensure the stability of the local market.”
quantitative easing policies
He explained that “the third source of revenue is to follow a pattern of targeted quantitative easing policies, with monetary and fiscal coordination, where coordination between monetary and fiscal policy is intensified, and this coordination is supported by efficient foreign exchange reserves, to ensure the stability of the national economy and the sustainability of public social spending, including the payment of salaries, pensions and social welfare allowances without any interruption.”
Saleh concluded by saying, “The continuation of these integrated policies guarantees the protection of monthly job income, enhances economic and social stability in the country, and enables Iraq to face global financial and economic shocks efficiently and effectively.” link
Tishwash: Government advisor: 13% of the economy is used to subsidize goods and stabilize fuel prices.
The economic advisor to the Prime Minister, Mazhar Muhammad Saleh, confirmed that government support for goods and services in Iraq amounts to about 13% of the gross domestic product, noting that the stability of fuel prices despite the rise in global oil prices has contributed to the stability of living costs.
Saleh told Al-Furat News Agency that: “The situation in the country is very different, as government support for goods and services consumes the equivalent of 13% of the gross domestic product,” noting that “the stability of fuel prices in Iraq, despite the rise in global oil prices due to the geopolitical conditions in the world and the Middle East in particular, represents the highest case of price support and is reflected in the stability of living costs.”
He explained that “the stability of fuel prices is reflected in the costs of services, especially transportation, electricity generation and domestic use of fuel, in addition to the consumption of fuel and energy for industrial and agricultural purposes and various professional activities.”
Saleh added that “supporting the food and medicine basket and the necessities of life will undoubtedly reduce what is called imported inflation of goods entering the country resulting from the effects of rising global energy prices, in which the price of a barrel of oil has exceeded $107.”
He explained that “the common rule among economic circles indicates that a 10% increase in oil prices leads to an increase in global inflation of about 0.2% to 0.4%, and this increase is usually included in the imported inflation equation for products.”
Saleh noted that “the economic authorities in the country renew their commitment to continue supporting the living stability of citizens, enhancing economic and social security, and taking measures to confront any external challenges in a way that ensures the sustainability of growth and protects economic gains.” link
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Tishwash: Netanyahu: There are military solutions to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, led by Washington.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu revealed on Monday evening that there are US-led military solutions to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but declined to elaborate.
Netanyahu told the American website Newsmax, “The Strait of Hormuz can be bypassed, and there is an interest in achieving this and allowing the free flow of oil and gas. There are military solutions to reopen the strait led by the United States, but I will not address them.”
He noted that “there are post-war ideas to divert energy and oil pipelines from the Gulf to Mediterranean ports.”
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bisent revealed on Monday that “individual” agreements had been made with Iran for ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. This coincided with preparations by European Union energy ministers to hold an emergency meeting on Tuesday to discuss ways to coordinate a response to the disruptions in global energy markets caused by the war with Iran.
Earlier today, US President Donald Trump said that Iran had agreed to allow 20 oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday morning for several days “as a gesture of respect,” adding that Tehran “agrees with most” points of America’s ceasefire plan.
In an interview with Israel’s Channel 14, Trump said: “The Iranians desperately want to reach an agreement and are begging to do so,” stressing that the United States is “already working to control the Strait of Hormuz.”
In response to a question about the level of coordination with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, he explained that relations are “at their peak,” adding: “The coordination is very close, and our relationship is good. It couldn’t be better.” link
