Tishwash: An economist reveals four reasons behind the worsening dollar crisis in the markets.
Economic expert Nabil Al-Marsoumi revealed on Tuesday the reasons for the worsening dollar crisis in the parallel market, in light of the continued pressures related to imports and the shifts in trade routes after the implementation of the new import mechanism (ASCODA) and the activation of the customs tariff law.
Al-Marsoumi explained in a statement followed by the “Iraq Observer” agency that “the application of the ASYCUDA mechanism and the customs tariff has pushed a large part of imports to shift geographically towards the ports of the Kurdistan Region, which do not apply this mechanism.”
He added that “this shift has put significant pressure on the parallel dollar to finance trade with Türkiye, noting that about 2,000 containers of goods enter through the Ibrahim Al-Khalil crossing alone.”
He explained that “this pressure contributed to the rise of the dollar in the parallel market and its exceeding the 1,500 dinar mark per dollar, in conjunction with additional pressure resulting from trade with Iran, which amounts to about one billion dollars per month and is also financed from the parallel market.”
Al-Marsoumi believes that “the dollar will continue to rise until a balance is achieved between the cost of importing through Basra ports, which are financed at the official dollar rate, and the cost of bringing goods in through Kurdistan ports, which rely on the parallel dollar rate.” link
Tishwash: Iraqi Dinar Weakens Amid Washington’s Political Pressure; Gold Surpasses $5,100/oz
The Iraqi dinar weakened to 151,500 per $100 amid U.S. political pressure, while global gold prices hit a historic record, surpassing $5,100 per ounce due to geopolitical risks.
The Iraqi dinar experienced a sharp decline in value against the U.S. dollar on Monday, fueled by a convergence of tightened electronic transfer regulations and escalating diplomatic pressure from Washington regarding the composition of Iraq’s next government.
The domestic currency volatility coincided with a historic surge in global commodities markets, where the price of gold surpassed $5,100 per ounce for the first time in recorded history, signaling a period of acute economic and geopolitical uncertainty.
Kaifi Mohammed, the spokesperson for the currency exchange market in the Kurdistan Region, stated on Monday, Jan. 26, 2026, that market stability has been directly undermined by a series of technical and political interventions.
According to Mohammed, the exchange rate for $100 reached 151,500 Iraqi dinars by midday, but he cautioned that the rate is unlikely to remain stable at its current level. Market projections suggest the currency could weaken further to 153,000 dinars per $100 in the coming hours as demand for foreign currency outstrips available supply.
Mohammed identified three primary catalysts for the dinar’s depreciation. He noted that procedures on the official currency transfer platform have been significantly tightened, creating a bottleneck that prevents merchants from obtaining the dollars necessary to conduct international trade.
This administrative friction is compounded by a hardening U.S. policy toward Baghdad. Washington has reportedly intensified its demands for the removal of militias from state decision-making centers, a move that has introduced a high degree of unpredictability into the local financial system.
Furthermore, Mohammed pointed to a broader shift in U.S. foreign policy under the Trump administration, which he characterized as increasingly transactional. He noted that Washington appears to be linking regional security and protection to direct financial payments, a stance that market participants view as a business-centric approach to geopolitics.
This perceived shift has led to increased anxiety among Iraqi merchants who, burdened by existing financial obligations and debts, have been forced to purchase dollars at prevailing market rates regardless of the cost, thereby driving the price higher.
The domestic currency strain is unfolding against the backdrop of an unprecedented rally in the global gold market. At the start of trading on the London Stock Exchange on Monday morning, the price of an ounce of gold breached the $5,000 threshold for the first time.
The metal’s ascent continued rapidly, rising by 2 percent to reach $5,093 before eventually settling above the $5,100 mark. Financial analysts noted that the speed of the increase is significant; gold first broke the $2,000 barrier in January 2024, and has more than doubled in value in the two years since.
Economic experts cited by market observers attribute the record-breaking gold prices to three main drivers: a sharp increase in geopolitical risks across multiple global regions, sustained and large-scale bullion purchases by central banks, and market expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will continue to lower interest rates.
The convergence of these factors has reinforced gold’s status as a primary haven for investors seeking to hedge against currency devaluations and political instability.
The local and global economic fluctuations are deeply intertwined with the deteriorating diplomatic relationship between Baghdad and Washington.
Abbas Jibouri, head of the Baghdad-based Rafid Center for Political and Strategic Studies, warned on Sunday that Iraq has reached a “dangerous crossroads.”
Jibouri noted that U.S. threats to restrict Iraq’s access to its own oil revenues—which are deposited in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York—represent a potent economic pressure tool that could trigger a systemic “salary shock” and broad financial sanctions.
Because oil revenues account for more than 90 percent of Iraq’s state income, any disruption to the flow of dollars from the United States would have immediate and devastating consequences for public sector salaries and infrastructure projects.
Jibouri argued that the United States is increasingly viewing Iraqi governance through a security lens, particularly concerning the participation of armed groups in the next cabinet. He warned that any steps toward “legalizing weapons outside the framework of the state” could prompt Washington to freeze assets or impose severe banking restrictions.
This assessment is supported by recent reports from the Associated Press, which indicated that the United States has begun a strategy that observers describe as “economic suffocation” or “dollar starvation.”
According to the report, Washington is leveraging its recent access to Venezuelan oil to manage global energy markets. By reintroducing Venezuelan exports to the world stage, the U.S. administration believes it can mitigate price spikes even if Iraqi exports are disrupted by financial sanctions.
This suggests that the U.S. is now positioned to impose comprehensive sanctions on the Iraqi government itself rather than just targeting specific individuals or institutions.
The threat of economic isolation looms large as Iraqi political forces deliberate the formation of the next government. U.S. officials have explicitly warned that the inclusion of armed factions opposed by Washington in the next cabinet would likely trigger a suspension of dollar transactions.
Despite these repeated warnings, several groups and individuals the U.S. deems problematic have already secured, or are expected to secure, senior positions in the government.
Jibouri urged Iraqi political leaders to recognize that economic stability is now inseparable from political and security stability.
He argued that the only solution to the looming crisis is for Baghdad to adopt a governance model that consolidates the monopoly of force under state institutions and reassures international partners that the government will remain independent of external regional influences.
Failure to achieve this balance, he warned, would place the heaviest burden on ordinary Iraqi citizens, who are already feeling the impact of the dinar’s fall and the rising cost of living.
As of late Monday, merchants in Erbil and Baghdad remained in a state of high alert, monitoring the currency exchanges for further signs of depreciation.
The historic high in gold prices serves as a global indicator of the same fears driving the local market: a world defined by intensifying power rivalries and a diminishing reliance on traditional rules of international cooperation. link
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Tishwash: Another blow to the constitution: The failure to elect a president brings back the scenario of coldly disregarding constitutional requirements.
The constitutional process in Iraq has suffered another setback with the postponement of the presidential election session, despite the country nearing the end of the constitutional deadline. This comes at a time when Parliament was expected to resolve this sovereign issue, amidst escalating political disputes, particularly within the Kurdish political bloc, and conflicting interpretations regarding adherence to constitutional timelines.
In a move that has raised widespread questions, the parliamentary session designated for electing the president did not convene, even though the constitutional deadline is in its final stages. This has revived fears of a repeat of past instances where deadlines were exceeded.
The Parliament’s media office announced the postponement of the presidential election session in a brief statement, without specifying a new date. Some members of Parliament stated that the postponement was due to the lack of necessary political consensus to hold the session, which has opened the door to various interpretations regarding the future of the process and the possibility of circumventing constitutional deadlines.
A Kurdish request for postponement:
According to official documents, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) submitted a request to postpone the session due to ongoing disagreements within the Kurdish political bloc regarding the presidential candidate.
The lack of a final consensus that would allow for a decisive election session prompted the postponement to avoid the session’s failure or its holding without results.
The core of the crisis lies in the continued division between the two main Kurdish parties. The KDP has put forward its candidate, Fuad Hussein, while the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) insists on its candidate, Nizar Amidi. Political mediation efforts have thus far failed to unify positions or agree on a compromise candidate, leaving the presidency hostage to the Kurdish-Kurdish dispute and its repercussions on the power balance in Baghdad
Political analyst Ali Nasser, familiar with the issue of exceeding deadlines, stated that “adherence to constitutional deadlines has not been consistent in past sessions, as we have witnessed, on more than one occasion, exceeding these deadlines, sometimes by several months.”
Nasser added to Iraq Observer that “what distinguishes the current phase from its predecessors is the clear emphasis by the head of the Supreme Judicial Council, Faiq Zaidan, on the necessity of adhering to important constitutional deadlines, even though the Iraqi constitution does not explicitly stipulate penalties for exceeding these deadlines.”
Nasser explained that “divisions within the Kurdish political bloc have directly impacted the selection of the president, given the lack of a unified candidate from the two main parties,” noting that “these divisions coincided with the nomination of Nouri al-Maliki for the premiership, which has added a new layer of complexity to the political landscape.”
He added that “the agreements were supposed to be decided first within the Kurdish house, before moving on to discussing them with the Coordination Framework as the representative of the largest bloc, but the recent meetings, whether between the Coordination Framework and the Democratic Party, or with the Patriotic Union, did not result in setting clear deadlines or agreeing on final names.”
In this context, constitutional experts explain that Article (72/First/B) of the Constitution set the deadline for electing the President of the Republic at thirty days from the date of the first meeting of the new House of Representatives. Since the House held its first session on December 29, 2025, the last day of the constitutional deadline is January 29, 2026.
They emphasize that the calculation of the period begins from the date of the meeting, not from the date of the vote, and that any interpretation to the contrary leads to an unjustified extension of a deadline explicitly stipulated in the constitution, noting that the procedural deadlines for nomination, objection and judicial resolution are part of this deadline and not added to it.
With open scenarios and the country entering the final days of the constitutional deadline, fears are growing that the continuation of political disputes will lead to a new postponement, which may open the door to another jump over deadlines, not only in the election of the President of the Republic, but also with regard to the appointment of the next Prime Minister, in a scene that indicates the weakness of political consensus, and the difficulty of managing constitutional entitlements within their specified timeframes. link
