Iraq Heads to the Polls: What’s Really at Stake This Election
Iraqis are getting ready to vote in parliamentary elections on November 11 — the sixth time since Saddam Hussein and the Baathist regime were removed in 2003.
Thousands of candidates are competing for 329 seats in parliament, and the results will have a big impact on Iraq’s future — from who governs in Baghdad and Erbil, to how the country handles its energy sector, economy, and national security. And, of course, how Iraq continues to balance its tricky relationships with both the United States and Iran.
Let’s break it all down.
1. What Matters Most to Iraqi Voters?
When Iraqis head to the polls, they usually vote based on sectarian and ethnic identity. Most people still choose candidates who come from their own religious or ethnic group. That pattern hasn’t changed much, even after years of new elections and promises of reform.
But there’s more to it than identity. The issues people care about vary a lot by region.
According to a recent public opinion survey from the Rewaq Baghdad Center for Public Policy, voters in Kurdistan and Basra didn’t see electricity as a top issue — unlike voters in other provinces. Instead, they focused on better roads, schools, and healthcare.
In places like Wasit, Karbala, and Basra, people seemed more likely to support local political blocs linked to their governors. They believe these local administrations actually delivered results — something rare in Iraq’s political landscape.
For example, the governor of Karbala is part of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s coalition, which might help the prime minister’s side win more votes there.
Right now, many expect al-Sudani’s coalition to win around 60 parliamentary seats. But that depends on how well voters believe he’s done in improving public services during his time in power.
In Baghdad, analysts expect Shia political blocs to lose about five seats, mainly because fewer Shia voters are expected to show up this time — while Sunni voter turnout might increase.
— Abbas Anbori, founder and president of the Baghdad Rewaq Center for Public Policy
2. Will Prime Minister al-Sudani Stay in Power?
It’s going to be tough for Mohammed Shia al-Sudani to get a second term.
The biggest reason? Internal divisions inside the Coordination Framework (CF) — the main Shia political coalition that picked him for the job in the first place. Those divisions have gotten worse in recent months, especially during the campaign period. Getting all those parties to agree on keeping him in office again will be a serious challenge.
Still, two other major factors could shape what happens next:
- The international angle. Both Iran and the United States play a huge role in Iraq’s politics. Their approval — or at least, lack of objection — often sets the limits for what’s politically possible in Baghdad.
- The religious leadership in Najaf. In the past, Iraq’s highest Shia clerical authority (the Marja‘iyya) had strong moral and political influence. But this time, Najaf seems to be stepping back, trying not to get too involved in politics.
So, what would it take for al-Sudani to stay?
Basically, he’d need to win over two-thirds of parliament — bringing together his own coalition along with Sunni and Kurdish allies. But right now, that scenario looks very unlikely.
— Abbas Anbori
3. What Exactly Is the Coordination Framework (CF)?
The Coordination Framework, often called the CF, is Iraq’s main Shia political bloc. It was formed after the messy 2021 elections by several Islamist parties who wanted to counter the influence of Moqtada al-Sadr’s movement.
Since then, the CF has become the most powerful force in Baghdad. They were the ones who put al-Sudani in office in 2022, and they still dominate the State Administration Coalition, which currently governs Iraq.
This election, the CF is trying something new — what they call a “controlled fragmentation strategy.”
Here’s what that means: instead of running as one big group, the CF has split into multiple smaller lists to grab as many votes as possible under Iraq’s new election law. Once the votes are counted, they’ll likely reunite to decide on the next prime minister and how to divide up government ministries.
It’s a clever move, but it also shows how much infighting exists within the coalition. Even so, the Shia parties know one thing for sure — no government can be formed without them. They still hold the biggest share of power in parliament, and every major political player in Iraq knows it.
— Sajad Jiyad, political analyst at The Century Foundation
Final Thoughts
This election isn’t just another round of voting — it’s a moment that could define Iraq’s direction for the next several years.
Can al-Sudani convince Iraqis that his government has delivered real progress? Will the Coordination Framework stay united, or split under pressure? And how will global powers like the U.S. and Iran react to the results?
Whatever happens on November 11, one thing is clear:
Iraq’s people are once again at the center of deciding what kind of country they want to live in — and what kind of leadership they’re willing to believe in.
