Three years after ChatGPT turned OpenAI into a global name in artificial intelligence, some investors are starting to ask a tough question: can OpenAI stay on top?
When ChatGPT launched in late 2022, it shocked the tech world. It grew faster than any consumer product ever and now has more than 800 million weekly users, both paid and free. OpenAI’s value has exploded too, reaching around $500 billion in recent funding rounds.
But the shine is starting to fade for some critics.
Investor Michael Burry, famous for predicting the 2008 financial crash, recently compared OpenAI to Netscape. Netscape once ruled the internet browser world, but quickly lost to Microsoft. Burry warned that OpenAI could follow the same path, calling it cash-hungry and vulnerable.
AI researcher Gary Marcus agrees that OpenAI no longer has the big lead it once did. He says the company is burning billions of dollars every month and struggling to keep its advantage as competitors catch up.
The money problem is real. OpenAI is expected to lose several billion dollars this year and doesn’t expect to turn a profit before 2029. At the same time, it has committed more than $1.4 trillion to chips and data centers to power its AI systems.
That massive spending raises eyebrows, especially since rivals like Google, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft have far deeper pockets. Google alone says about 650 million people use its Gemini AI every month, backed by strong advertising revenue.
Inside OpenAI, pressure is clearly rising. CEO Sam Altman has warned his team about a rough road ahead, pointing to tough competition and a difficult economic environment. When Google released a new AI model that received strong feedback, Altman reportedly issued a “red alert,” pushing his teams to step up their game.
Last week, OpenAI launched a new ChatGPT model and announced a partnership with Disney, which will allow its characters to be used in ChatGPT and OpenAI’s video tool, Sora. The deal brought fresh excitement, but questions remain about whether OpenAI’s huge investments will truly pay off.
Some analysts say OpenAI’s valuation keeps climbing even though profits are still far away. Others believe the company’s close ties with Microsoft give it room to maneuver, since deal terms can be flexible and support remains strong.
Most experts don’t expect OpenAI to collapse. The AI market is growing fast, and there’s room for more than one winner.
As one analyst put it, AI isn’t a winner-takes-all game. Many companies will take a slice, and the whole pie just keeps getting bigger.
For now, OpenAI remains a giant—but whether it stays the leader is a question that’s far from settled.
