Ripple’s XRP has remained below its 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) for 70 consecutive days, a technical condition that has historically preceded strong price rallies, according to several cryptocurrency analysts. However, near-term risks remain elevated as technical signals and exchange data show mixed momentum.
Crypto analyst Steph Is Crypto highlighted that similar setups occurred in past market cycles. In 2017, XRP traded below the 50-week SMA for 70 days before rallying more than 200%. In 2021, a 49-day period below the same level preceded a 70% gain. In 2024, XRP spent 84 days under the SMA before surging over 850%, based on the analyst’s data.
The current 70-day stretch below the SMA mirrors chart structures seen in 2016 and 2024, according to Steph Is Crypto. In those cycles, XRP formed a three-wave corrective pattern lasting between 120 and 150 days, followed by a breakout. The 2025 price action now sits near the upper end of that historical range, marked by sideways movement and declining volume.
Another analyst, Egrag Crypto, presented a fractal-based model that he claims has tracked XRP’s historical behavior with roughly 82% accuracy. The model suggests a potential expansion phase could occur between June and October 2026, provided key downside levels hold. A break below those levels would weaken or invalidate the model.
Not all analysts are optimistic in the near term. CryptoWZRD noted that XRP must hold above specific support levels to maintain bullish structure, while identifying nearby resistance zones that could limit upside. Ali Martinez warned that failure to defend critical technical levels could trigger a sharp correction, with downside risk of more than 55% if rejection continues near resistance.
Adding to uncertainty, data shows rising XRP inflows to exchanges, particularly Binance, which reportedly accounts for the largest share of XRP trading volume. Market observers often interpret increased exchange inflows as a signal of potential selling pressure.
Overall, while long-term technical patterns suggest the possibility of a future breakout, analysts remain divided as XRP faces short-term risks amid weakening momentum and elevated exchange activity.
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