Ariel: Why you Should be Excited about this
10-7-2026
Why You Should Be Excited About This
Eighty-five billion in foreign currency reserves is the war chest that makes a revaluation defensible instead of speculativewhen the CBI moves the rate, those reserves are the guarantee that the new value holds against any market pressure or speculative attack.
Based on the full stack the $85B reserves (28th globally, 3rd in the Arab world per IMF data through mid-2025/Q2 2026), forward oil contracts, gold positioning, non-oil revenue projections, and the measured appreciation posture Washington expects the defensible rate Iraq can post on the Forex this year is 3.85 dinars per dollar.
From Another Source Who Will Remain Anonymous
Why That Particular Rate?
1. $85B against Iraq’s money supply gives real room, but a measured first move preserves the buffer. At 3.85, the Central Bank cuts the gap by roughly two-thirds from 1,310 without burning reserves defending an aggressive peg against speculative attack on day one.
2. Oil sold forward at 2027 delivery locks in dollar inflows that can be priced against a stronger dinar. But those contracts settle over time they support a trajectory, not a cliff jump. 3.85 is the rate those inflows can defend now.
3. Safaa Al-Jabri’s $110B+ projected 2027 sovereign revenue includes customs, taxes, and fees but those collection systems are still being digitized and enforced. Until that revenue is actually captured rather than projected, it argues for a conservative first posting.
4. The U.S. side prefers phased appreciation a strong enough move to kill the parallel market and Iran’s arbitrage channel, but not so violent it destabilizes regional trade or triggers panic liquidation of dinar-denominated debt. 3.85 sits in that corridor: dramatic enough to be historic, stable enough to hold.
Now Please Keep In Mind
Redenomination & Revaluation-
The Important Sequencing Note:
Iraq can do both simultaneously or in phases. Delete the zeros for cash-handling sanity (1.31 becomes the nominal face), then let the rate appreciate against that face or move the rate first. Either path, the wealth event lives entirely in the revaluation leg, not the zero deletion. Anyone telling you the zeros ARE the event is selling theater.
Important Justification:
Iraq’s Treasury is not wiring dollars to Chase and Wells Fargo when you exchange. The mechanics:
• You exchange at a U.S. bank. The bank credits you dollars and takes custody of the dinar.
• The bank offloads the dinar into the secondary market — to the U.S. Treasury’s held positions, to market makers, or back into forex liquidity pools where dinar now trades as an internationally recognized currency.
• Iraq settles against its own currency obligations over time through the CBI’s reserve position and oil-for-dinar mechanics not as a lump-sum payout.
I needed to make this clear for those who will attempt to use those reserves as an excuse as to why it is so impossible for Iraq to go back to 3.22 or 4.00. We are getting paid in secondary markets. We will not be draining Iraq’s reserves or economy.
This is precisely why the reserve figure matters so much: the $85B isn’t a payout fund, it’s the credibility backstop that lets the secondary market absorb redemptions at the new rate without Iraq’s books imploding. The reserves guarantee the currency’s floor; the market handles the flow.
Source(s):
• https://x.com/Prolotario1/status/2107584877633654938
