Solana (SOL) has dropped 9.34% over the past seven days, falling to around $107 as selling pressure, ETF outflows and weakening technical indicators weigh on the cryptocurrency ahead of its planned Alpenglow upgrade on October 21.
According to the supplied market data, SOL had a market capitalization of approximately $63.02 billion and daily trading volume of around $2.86 billion. The token has struggled to recover after retreating from late-September highs near $123.
The upcoming Alpenglow upgrade is designed to reduce Solana’s transaction finality time from around 12.8 seconds to approximately 150 milliseconds. However, the technical improvements have yet to translate into stronger price momentum, with SOL remaining below key resistance levels.
Solana traded near $107.06 on October 14, with immediate support around $104–$105. Its price was also below the 20-day simple moving average of $115.83, suggesting that short-term market conditions remained weak.
The Bollinger Bands placed the upper boundary near $127.20 and the lower boundary around $104.45. If SOL breaks below the lower boundary, the $100 level could become the next major test. Further selling could expose the $95–$98 support zone.
For a recovery, SOL would first need to move above $110 and then reclaim the $115.83 moving average. The $120–$123 range represents another resistance area that traders will be watching.
The Relative Strength Index stood at 41.58, below its moving average of 52.41. This suggests that selling pressure remains stronger than buying momentum, although the indicator has not reached the conventional oversold level of 30.
Crypto analyst Crypto Patel also warned that SOL had broken below its local price structure and remained under resistance near $112.39. He identified a potential buying zone between $103 and $96, with particular attention on the $95.63–$101.27 range.
Patel said a recovery could follow if SOL establishes a higher low and confirms a bullish reversal. Under that scenario, he identified $125 and $150 as potential upside targets. However, he warned that sustained trading below $95.63 would invalidate his bullish setup.
Meanwhile, the Solana Foundation is preparing for the Alpenglow upgrade, which is scheduled to activate during epoch 1064, beginning around 15:00 UTC on October 21.
The upgrade will replace TowerBFT, Solana’s existing consensus mechanism, with a new system called Votor. Instead of recording validator voting transactions on the blockchain, validators will exchange votes directly and combine sufficient approvals into certificates used to finalize blocks.
Transaction finality refers to the point at which a blockchain transaction is considered settled under the network’s consensus rules. Faster finality could help applications confirm transactions more quickly, although the stated 150-millisecond target will depend on actual network performance after activation.
The upgrade is not intended to change how ordinary transactions execute, and wallets and decentralized applications are expected to continue operating through the transition.
Validator operators must prepare by using software built on Agave 4.3.0. Firedancer and Frankendancer will not support the initial migration, meaning operators using those clients will need to switch temporarily.
The upgrade will also change validator costs. Existing voting transaction expenses of approximately 1 SOL per epoch will be replaced by a 0.8 SOL Validator Admission Ticket fee, paid from each validator’s vote account.
Reported transaction counts may decline after activation because voting transactions will no longer appear inside blocks. This would not necessarily indicate lower user activity on the network.
Institutional investment data has also raised concerns about SOL’s short-term outlook. According to the supplied SoSoValue figures, US spot Solana ETFs recorded approximately $1.04 million in net outflows on October 13, extending a reported streak of seven consecutive trading days of withdrawals.
Cumulative net inflows stood at approximately $1.58 billion, while total net assets were around $1.71 billion. Trading volume across the tracked products reached $64.26 million during the session.
The latest outflow means investors withdrew more money from the funds than they added that day. However, cumulative inflows remained positive, showing that the products had attracted more capital than they had lost since their launches.
The available figures do not establish that ETF withdrawals directly caused SOL’s price decline. Still, continued outflows could provide another indication of weakening institutional demand ahead of the upgrade.
Not all analysts expect further losses. Crypto analyst Sweep identified a bullish divergence on SOL’s chart, suggesting that selling momentum could be weakening despite the falling price. The analyst compared the pattern with an earlier divergence that preceded a 30% rally, although there is no guarantee that the same move will happen again.
For now, SOL’s price structure remains under pressure. A move above $110 would be an initial sign of improving momentum, while a sustained recovery above $115.83 would put the token back above its 20-day moving average. On the downside, a break below $104–$105 could bring $100 into focus.
Alpenglow is a major technical development for Solana, but its effect on the token’s price remains uncertain. Traders will be watching both the network’s performance after the October 21 activation and whether SOL can regain key support and resistance levels.
