Economist’s “News and Veiws” on Bonds Thursday 10-19-2023


David Hay: The Fed is Going to Overwhelm the Bond Market with Supply

Palisades Gold Radio:  10-19-2023

Tom welcomes back David Hay author, Co-Founder and Co-CIO of Evergreen Gavekal. David discusses various economic indicators that may signal the beginning of a recession.

Tightening of credit conditions, with credit spreads expanding rapidly, and how the recent events in the Middle East have affected the safety trade for US Treasury bonds.

David expressed concern about the current federal fiscal funding situation and its potential consequences. He also mentioned the conflicting views in the market between short-term investors and long-term investors, which is creating tension in the bond market.

They discussed the Federal Reserve’s policies and how they have continued to increase interest rates despite the slowing economy, which is starting to impact the real economy with higher borrowing costs and tighter credit conditions.

David also shared his observations about the job market and the economy, noting the strength of nominal GDP but attributing it to the large deficit spending.

They also talked about the current trends in the nuclear energy industry and how China and Russia are leading the way with new technologies, while the US is lagging behind.

Environmental policies and the importance of separating fact from fiction in the green energy transition. Additionally, they touched on the current state of the oil industry and how it has managed to maintain record levels of production despite lower drilling activity.

Lastly, David highlighted the importance of having dry powder, or cash, to take advantage of opportunities during market crashes.

Time Stamp References:

 0:00 – Introduction

 0:45 – Credit Contraction

3:36 – Bonds As Safe Havens?

5:41 – Treasury Demand

10:28 – Investor Sentiment

12:34 – Policy Lag & Labor

15:30 – GDP Strength/Deficits

18:25 – Fed & More Q.E.

21:20 – Dollar Strength & Gold

27:16 – Tech Bubbles & A.I.

30:00 – Energy & Nuclear Outlook

36:56 – SMR & Public Opinion

40:20 – Renewables & Realism

 45:29 – Oil Industry & Drilling

50:40 – Natural Gas

52:49 – Bonds Now & 1987

55:06 – Wrap Up

WTF is Happening in the Treasury Bond Market?

Lynette Zang:  10-18-2023

The bond market is collapsing! In this video, Lynette breaks down how the volatility is a sign of an impending earthquake that will leave the global financial system in ruins.

 She warns those with wealth in mutual funds, ETFs, annuities etc are at extreme risk of losing it all soon.

Stock/Bond Portfolio Is FAILING | Craig Hemke

Liberty and Finance:  10-19-2023

For decades, investment professionals have relied on a 60/40 stock/bond portfolio strategy.

 But with interest rates rising, both stock and bonds are falling. It is important to have assets outside the system, says discusses Craig Hemke of TF Metals Report.

The only way out of the current crisis is gold, he says.


0:00 Intro

3:00 Where are we headed?

9:16 Banking system

 10:25 Middle East

13:20 Inflation

19:35 Bond market