Ariel :The HCL is Not an Obstacle to Revaluation
9-5-2025
The HCL is not an obstacle to revaluation, no such link. In fact, a major Iraqi oil deal signed with BP in September 2025 is based on a revenue-sharing model that does not require the HCL, showing that oil export agreements can proceed without it. This info is publicly available.
Reports came out yesterday stating officially that BP will contribute between $20 billion and $25 billion under a profit-sharing arrangement that would last more than 25 years.
So we need to understand everything is not a straight line. Iraq is making very flexible maneuvers. And they are not held to this one thing that requires preliminary actions regarding a rate that is needed in order for them to do these massive oil deals that helps diversify their economy. Now there is one thing to consider.
Revaluing without the HCL risks KRG pushback, potentially disrupting 400,000 barrels/day of northern oil exports (10% of Iraq’s total). However, CBI’s $100+ billion reserves and intervention capacity (demonstrated in 2023’s 1,460-to-1,320 IQD/USD adjustment) can absorb volatility, with capital controls limiting withdrawals to $5,000 initially.
So I think they have this covered. And we all can release ourselves from this assumption that the HCL needs to be passed as this mandatory action that is required for a rate change. This is simply up for preferred usage on Iraq’s part.
Link Below
Chachiv: So AJ was right about HCL law? Majeed said HCL didnt need to be passed?
Ariel: Listen Iraq’s potential to revalue the Iraqi dinar (IQD) in 2025 does not strictly depend on the finalization of the Hydrocarbon Law (HCL), as the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) has sufficient economic levers reserves, banking reforms, and international alignments to execute a revaluation without.
They are not strictly held to it. But here is why it matters.
The HCL’s passage would significantly enhance the stability and global confidence required for a sustainable rate adjustment, making it a preferred but not mandatory prerequisite.
So it can go either way if they want. It’s really up to how they want to do it.
Source(s): https://x.com/Prolotario1/status/1963509502692430145
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Courtesy of Dinar Guru: https://www.dinarguru.com/
Frank26 [Iraq boots-on-the-ground report] FIREFLY: The CBI talking today how they will watch over the new exchange rate and keep it stable. It sounds like a managed float is what’s coming. FRANK: It sounds like they’re telling you there’s a new rate coming…I agree with you 100%. This phase that we’re in right now with the monetary reform is teaching you what’s in the monetary reform? The float.
Nader From The Mid East Please…let’s be real. All that stuff $10, $7, $6 [for the dinar RV rate], more than $3.22 I don’t want to hear it. It’s really the abuse of your mind. I’m serious…It will not go more than $3.22 I promise you. This is serious. It’s 100%.
Militia Man Article: “12 INTERNATIONAL COMPANIES SUBMIT BIDS TO OPERATE MOSUL INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT” This shows Iraq already has the support from the international community. There are firms from Turkey, Britain, the UAE, and Oman. The investment climate has become ripe for public-private partnerships. That means cross border collaborations. This too is support for Iraq’s [global] integration! …They’ll need the support from the central bank by having plenty of foreign currencies…to help facilitate trade on a global scale. Investment in the Mosul airport supports this effort as well!
This Is Bigger Than a Market Shift. It’s a Global Reset.
Gold Core TV: 9-5-2025
Gold made new highs. Silver followed. The headline is simple, the drivers are not.
In this short briefing, Jan Skoyles explains why the long end of bond markets weakened, how policy credibility entered the price, and what Beijing’s choreography signalled for risk premia.
The focus is practical. How to think about duration risk today. Why a measured allocation to bullion can still improve portfolio resilience.
Key points
Real yields firmed while #inflation expectations were stable. This is a repricing of confidence, not a panic about prices.
Long bonds remain an anchor for diversified portfolios, yet the anchor has moved.
Funding costs matter. #Geopolitics widened the range of plausible outcomes and lifted hurdle rates.
A measured allocation to gold and silver can diversify exposure to single issuer promises. Actionable takeaways Reassess duration risk in the context of higher real yields.
https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/KeLtzKqIP2Q?feature=oembed&enablejsapi=1
