Citigroup has lowered its 12-month price targets for both Bitcoin and Ethereum, pointing to weak ETF demand and delays in U.S. crypto regulation as key reasons behind the more cautious outlook.
The bank reduced its Bitcoin forecast to $82,000 from $112,000 and cut its Ethereum target to $2,240 from $3,175, according to a research note released on Tuesday.
This is the second time Citi has lowered its crypto price targets this year. Earlier in 2026, the bank reduced its Bitcoin forecast from $143,000 to $112,000 and lowered its Ethereum target from $4,304 to $3,175 as market conditions weakened.
According to Citi, one of the biggest concerns is the decline in ETF demand. The bank noted that crypto ETF flows, which have been an important driver of prices, have recently turned negative. Bitcoin ETFs have already seen about $3.3 billion in net outflows this year.
As a result, Citi cut its forecast for net ETF inflows over the next 12 months from $10 billion to zero. The bank said this change played a major role in lowering its expectations for both Bitcoin and Ethereum.
The downgrade comes as U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a difficult period, recording $4.5 billion in net outflows during June, the largest monthly withdrawal since the products were launched in January 2024. Ethereum ETFs have also faced outflows as investors pull back from riskier assets.
Citi also highlighted slow progress on crypto legislation in the United States. The bank believes delays in establishing clear rules for digital assets have weakened investor confidence and may slow institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies.
Uncertainty surrounding the CLARITY Act has added to market concerns. While the legislation has advanced through several stages, debates over ethics and conflict-of-interest issues have delayed further progress.
Another factor weighing on Citi’s outlook is the possibility of increased selling from companies that hold large amounts of Bitcoin and other digital assets on their balance sheets. The bank warned that these firms could become sellers during periods of market stress, adding pressure to prices.
Under its most pessimistic scenario, which assumes a recession and continued ETF outflows, Citi sees Bitcoin falling to $53,000 and Ethereum dropping to $1,094 over the next year.
For now, the bank believes investors will remain focused on ETF flows, regulatory developments in the United States, and whether large crypto holders continue reducing their positions.
