The timeline is the most critical piece, and it compresses based on what we just learned. The budget returned to the Ministry of Finance this week that recalibration takes 7 to 12 days under normal conditions, but this is being fast-tracked. My estimate is the recalculated draft returns to the Council of Ministers between November 7 and November 10. The Council of Ministers approval is the keystone step once that happens, the rate framework is locked into the budget bill and becomes politically irreversible without a public crisis. From Council approval to parliamentary submission takes 3 to 5 days under the current political alignment, putting the budget in parliament’s hands between November 12 and November 14 just inside the November 15 window.
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