Bitcoin may face a third wave of liquidations in October as traders rebuild leveraged positions while prices remain under pressure. Bitfinex analysts warned that a drop below $79,821 could trigger forced selling, while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $228.4 million in net outflows during the week of Oct. 12–16.
The weekly ETF outflow was 66.4% lower than the $678.9 million withdrawn during Oct. 5–9. However, investment flows remained negative, and analysts said demand was still too weak to support a lasting recovery.
Bitfinex also estimated that Bitcoin would need to rise above $84,400 to bring the average Bitcoin ETF investor back into profit.
Bitcoin leverage raises the risk of another liquidation wave
In its market assessment, Bitfinex reported that futures open interest increased by 4.3% between Oct. 12 and 15, even as Bitcoin prices fell.
The analysts said traders had rebuilt leveraged positions without enough sustained buying in the spot market. They also noted that some traders moved into leveraged long positions after short sellers were forced to close their positions during an earlier price increase.
Bitfinex said those long positions were paying annualized funding rates of 6% to 9%, creating conditions that could leave traders vulnerable if prices fell again.
The firm identified $79,821 as a potential trigger for forced selling. If Bitcoin breaks below that level, the analysts see a possible move into an accumulation range between $77,600 and $80,400.
Bitfinex placed $81,300 near the middle of its weekly trading range and said its bearish scenario was more likely than a sustained recovery. It also reported a 0.78 correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq-100 over 20 days, suggesting that further weakness in technology stocks could add pressure to BTC.
Bitcoin had already fallen below $82,000 on Oct. 14 after U.S. inflation data came in above expectations. The price had traded above $84,100 earlier in the session before moving down toward $81,900.
Bitcoin ETF outflows slow but remain negative
Data from Farside Investors showed that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $228.4 million during Oct. 12–16, compared with $678.9 million the previous week.
Tuesday recorded $175.7 million in net inflows, while Thursday added another $5.1 million. Those gains were outweighed by withdrawals on the other three trading days, including $261.4 million on Wednesday.
Ethereum ETFs also recorded $320.1 million in weekly outflows. Combined withdrawals from Bitcoin and Ethereum funds reached $548.5 million, with Ethereum funds experiencing the larger loss.
Jeff Ko, chief analyst at ViaBTC, viewed the smaller Bitcoin ETF outflow as a possible sign that selling pressure was easing. He said Bitcoin had recovered toward $82,000–$83,000 after briefly falling below $80,000, although he remained cautious about the wider market.
Bitfinex’s demand estimates painted a weaker picture. The firm put net 30-day apparent demand at approximately negative 50,000 BTC, indicating that estimated demand remained below available supply over the period.
The analysts also said newer whale holders accounted for 33% of total whale realized capitalization, up from 18% at the start of 2026. They define newer holders as large investors whose coins have been held for fewer than 155 days. Their estimated average cost basis was around $77,000.
Analysts see resilience but limited fresh buying
DWF Labs described Bitcoin as holding up relatively well against technology stocks without showing a clear return of investor risk appetite.
Its market briefing put Bitcoin’s weekly decline at 2.47%, compared with a 4.43% drop in the Nasdaq. However, DWF said Bitcoin-denominated open interest averaged its lowest monthly level of the year, while implied volatility remained elevated after the latest inflation data.
These figures measure different periods and indicators from Bitfinex’s reported increase in futures open interest between Oct. 12 and 15.
Tim Sun, a senior researcher at HashKey Group, said Bitcoin was struggling to break out because leveraged and debt-financed buying had weakened. Existing holders appeared reluctant to sell heavily, but new long-term investment had not been strong enough to push prices higher.
Sun expects Bitcoin to remain within a trading range until financial conditions improve. He said a stronger recovery in ETF demand would likely require lower real interest rates and financing costs, along with increased allocations from wealth platforms, investment advisers and long-term asset managers.
Federal Reserve uncertainty could add volatility
Sun said an October pause followed by a rate hike in December was more likely than consecutive rate increases. He attributed part of the inflation rebound to energy costs and supply constraints, while warning that further tightening could put additional pressure on a cooling labor market.
Jeff Mei, chief operating officer at BTSE, also pointed to uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s next decision as a potential source of market volatility. He said ETF flows could provide clues about institutional positioning ahead of the meeting.
Another potential pressure comes from possible changes to MSCI’s stock indexes that could affect digital asset treasury companies, including Strategy and Metaplanet.
MSCI’s October 15 announcement scheduled the final list of affected companies for Nov. 11, with changes taking effect after the Nov. 30 market close. The November review is also expected to end temporary restrictions on companies whose digital assets account for at least 50% of their total assets.
For Bitcoin, the key levels identified by Bitfinex remain $79,821 on the downside and $84,400 on the upside. A break below the lower level could increase liquidation risk, while a recovery above the upper level would bring the average Bitcoin ETF investor back into profit, according to the firm’s estimates. Neither outcome is guaranteed, and ETF flows and broader financial conditions remain important factors to watch.