Bitcoin has recovered to around $78,000 after last week’s sell-off triggered by the reported $6.3 billion Binance hack. However, technical indicators suggest the cryptocurrency is still struggling to regain its bullish momentum.
Summary
- Bitcoin bounced back to around $78,000 after falling to a recent low near $76,173 following the October 29 Binance security breach. However, it remains below its previous trading range.
- Bitcoin is still trading below its 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages near $80,200. Its daily RSI of 38.97 also suggests sellers remain in control.
- The four-hour MACD has recorded a bullish crossover, with its histogram turning positive. This points to improving buying momentum, although both MACD lines remain below zero.
- A sustained move above $78,219 could open the way toward $79,485 and $80,508. If Bitcoin fails to hold its current levels, support at $77,761 and $76,460 could come into focus.
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded around $643 million in net outflows on October 30. Meanwhile, Bitcoin posted its seventh consecutive weekly close above the 50-week moving average near $75,728.
According to crypto.news data from November 2, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading near $78,053 after recovering from a recent low of approximately $76,173.
The cryptocurrency has regained some ground after falling from above $80,000 following the October 29 security breach. However, it has yet to break through several important resistance levels.
Bitcoin briefly moved toward $78,600 during early Asian trading on Monday before giving back some of its gains. The recovery followed three consecutive days of gains, while Asian stock markets and US stock futures also moved higher after Friday’s technology stock sell-off.
Despite the recent volatility, Bitcoin has remained above its 50-week moving average of $75,728 for seven consecutive weeks. Its latest weekly close was around $78,229, approximately 3.3% above this longer-term technical level.
Bitcoin price struggles to recover after Binance hack
Bitcoin’s latest recovery comes after one of the cryptocurrency market’s biggest reported security incidents, in which hackers stole approximately $6.3 billion in digital assets from Binance on October 29.
During the resulting market sell-off, Bitcoin dropped below $77,000, while traders watched the $76,200 to $76,800 range for signs of support.
Selling pressure was especially strong in the derivatives market, where more than $1.5 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated as prices declined.
The pressure also spread to US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which recorded $643.2 million in outflows on October 30. This was their largest single-day withdrawal since June.
BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for $233.7 million in outflows, while Fidelity’s FBTC lost $201 million and ARK 21Shares’ ARKB recorded withdrawals of $129.5 million.
The withdrawals wiped out four consecutive trading sessions of inflows and left Bitcoin ETFs with a combined weekly outflow of $202.4 million.
Meanwhile, Binance said on Monday that customer withdrawals were stabilizing after users withdrew a net $3.64 billion following the attack. The exchange also said it had replenished approximately 95% of the affected assets and was working to restore the remaining tokens.
What do Bitcoin’s daily technical indicators suggest?
On the daily chart, Bitcoin is still trading below its 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), which stood at $80,155 and $80,212, respectively.
BTC/USD 1-day price chart. Source: crypto.news
Both moving averages are close to each other, making the $80,000 to $80,200 range an important resistance zone. Buyers will need to push Bitcoin above this area to strengthen the recovery.
However, Bitcoin remains above its 100-day EMA at $77,761 and its 200-day EMA at $76,460. These levels are currently acting as important support areas.
A sustained drop below these averages could weaken the technical outlook and bring the recent lows back into focus.
The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood at 38.97, below its signal average of 43.23 and the neutral level of 50. This suggests sellers still have the advantage, although Bitcoin has not entered the traditional oversold territory below 30.
According to Coinbase Institutional’s October 30 market commentary, the $80,000 to $82,000 range remains a major resistance area. Meanwhile, the $73,000 to $75,000 range could provide support if selling pressure returns.
The firm noted that several closely watched cost-basis and moving-average levels come together in this lower price range.
Can Bitcoin price reach $80,000 again?
Bitcoin’s four-hour chart shows some signs of improving buying momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has recorded a bullish crossover.
BTC/USD 4-hour price chart. Source: crypto.news
The MACD line stood at negative 356, above its signal line at negative 553. Meanwhile, the histogram turned positive at 197.
This crossover suggests that selling pressure is weakening and buyers are starting to regain some control.
However, both MACD lines remain below zero, meaning the recent improvement has not yet confirmed a sustained bullish reversal.
The Fibonacci retracement levels, measured between the recent high of $84,843 and low of $76,173, show immediate resistance at $78,219. This represents the 23.6% retracement level.
If Bitcoin moves above this level and holds, it could next approach $79,485, followed by $80,508, which represents the 50% retracement level.
A stronger recovery beyond these prices could bring $81,531 and potentially $82,987 into focus.
On the downside, if Bitcoin fails to break above $78,219, it could fall toward its 100-day EMA at $77,761, followed by the 200-day EMA at $76,460.
A break below the recent low of $76,173 would further weaken the recovery, leaving the 50-week moving average near $75,728 as the next important level to watch.
Beyond technical indicators, investors are also watching the November 3 US midterm elections. The Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75% to 4% has also kept monetary policy in focus.
Coinbase Institutional warned that persistent inflation and a cautious Federal Reserve could continue to put pressure on Bitcoin, particularly if the cryptocurrency fails to reclaim the $80,000 resistance level.