Cardano’s ADA token rose nearly 3% to around $0.2235 on Wednesday, October 21, but bearish technical signals suggest the price could fall further if key support levels fail.
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez warned that ADA could drop toward $0.17 if it closes below the $0.21 support level on the daily chart. That would represent a decline of around 24% from its current price.
Martinez pointed to the SuperTrend indicator, which has recently turned bearish. He compared the signal with one recorded on May 22, which was followed by a 46% price correction. However, he noted that ADA has not yet confirmed a breakdown, meaning another major decline is not guaranteed.
The $0.21 level remains important because it marks the lower boundary of an ascending price channel in Martinez’s analysis. A daily close below this level could strengthen the bearish outlook and open the way toward $0.17.
Large Cardano holders are also being watched closely. Wallets holding between 100 million and 1 billion ADA have shown little change in their balances over the past 10 days, according to data from Santiment Intelligence. This suggests that the tracked group has not shown a clear shift toward either buying or selling during that period.
Earlier, on October 13, Martinez reported that large holders had reduced their balances by more than 110 million ADA over five days. Daily active addresses also fell from 27,248 to 15,977 during the period covered by that report.
For now, the latest whale data does not show clear evidence of renewed selling from the same group.
ADA is also facing resistance at its short-term moving averages. The 9-day moving average sits at $0.2255, while the 21-day moving average is around $0.2394. A move above $0.2255 could be an early sign of recovery, while breaking above $0.2394 could strengthen the upward move.
On the downside, support levels to watch are $0.22 and $0.21. If both fail, ADA could fall toward $0.20 before testing Martinez’s $0.17 target.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood at 44.35, below its signal average of 46.09 and the neutral level of 50. This points to weak momentum, although the token has not entered oversold territory.
Despite Wednesday’s recovery, ADA remained down around 4.99% over the previous seven days. Its market capitalization was approximately $8.4 billion, with trading volume near $254 million.
Meanwhile, the Cardano Foundation submitted its response to the European Commission’s review of the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation on October 21. The Foundation called for clearer rules covering decentralized finance and staking, arguing that regulations should reflect the activities performed and the risks involved.
It also distinguished direct staking at the protocol level from custodial services managed by third parties. The consultation covers areas including DeFi, staking, lending, stablecoins, and tokenized assets, but no regulatory changes have been adopted through this review so far.