CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has warned that Bitcoin’s current bear market could continue until early 2027, based on historical on-chain data and investor profit trends.
In a recent post on X, Ju said Bitcoin’s current market structure closely resembles the prolonged bear markets seen in 2014, 2018, and 2022.
According to Ju, once large-scale profit-taking begins, investor profitability typically declines for around 18 months. Since CryptoQuant’s data shows this trend started in October 2025, he believes the current downturn could last until early 2027 if historical patterns repeat.
His analysis is based on CryptoQuant’s PnL Index Signal, a long-term indicator that tracks investor profitability using a 365-day moving average. The signal peaked in late 2025, similar to previous market tops that were followed by extended declines.
At the time of Ju’s comments, Bitcoin was trading near $73,000, roughly 30% below its 2025 highs. The market has also faced pressure from higher U.S. Treasury yields and weaker risk appetite among investors.
Ju said a genuine market recovery requires a specific shift in investor behavior. He explained that unrealized profits need to start rising while realized profits decline at the same time. This would suggest that selling pressure is fading and buyers are beginning to regain control of the market.
For now, he believes that signal has not yet appeared.
Not everyone agrees with the bearish outlook. Some analysts argue that Bitcoin may already be approaching a cycle bottom.
VanEck CEO Jan van Eck recently pointed to improving options market conditions and slower selling from long-term holders as signs that the market could be stabilizing. Coinbase has also suggested that stronger support may emerge during the middle of the year, potentially setting the stage for a better third quarter.
Ju said two key factors could help Bitcoin recover: stronger inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and increased buying activity from institutional investors through over-the-counter markets. Both sources of demand have slowed compared to the strong momentum seen earlier in 2025.
CryptoQuant’s data also shows that capital continues flowing into Bitcoin, but market value has not increased at the same pace. Ju argues that this gap between incoming capital and price performance is a classic sign of a bear market.
Bitcoin is currently trading around the $73,000 level, while analysts continue watching resistance zones near $74,200 and $74,500. A break above those levels could improve short-term sentiment, but for now, many traders remain cautious as they wait for stronger signs of a trend reversal.
