XRP recovered to around $1.31 on October 19, gaining nearly 2% over 24 hours. However, the token remained down more than 7% over the previous week as investors faced weakening ETF demand, rising exchange reserves and declining activity in the derivatives market.
According to CoinGecko, XRP’s market capitalization stood at approximately $82.97 billion, with daily trading volume reaching $1.44 billion. Trading volume increased 49.2% from the previous day as the token attempted to recover some of its recent losses.
Despite the daily rebound, technical indicators continued to show weak momentum, leaving traders watching whether XRP could hold support near $1.25.
XRP ETFs record their first weekly outflows in 14 weeks
US spot XRP exchange-traded funds recorded approximately $1.84 million in net outflows during the October 12–16 trading week, according to SoSoValue data. The withdrawals ended a 13-week streak of net inflows.
The reversal came after several weeks of declining investment flows. XRP ETFs attracted around $11.31 million during the preceding week, following approximately $4.7 million in the week before that.
Friday, October 16, accounted for the biggest shift in the latest reporting period, with approximately $2.47 million leaving the funds. Canary Capital’s XRPC recorded the reported redemption that day.
Other fund providers saw different results. Bitwise’s XRP product recorded around $3.01 million in weekly outflows, while Franklin Templeton’s XRPZ attracted approximately $3.64 million, partly offsetting withdrawals elsewhere.
Despite the weekly reversal, cumulative net inflows remained close to $1.8 billion as of October 16, while total ETF net assets stood at approximately $1.47 billion.
These figures measure different things. Cumulative net inflows track the balance of investor contributions and withdrawals over time, while net assets reflect the current market value of fund holdings.
The $1.84 million weekly outflow represented roughly 0.12% of reported ETF net assets. Although the withdrawal was relatively small, it marked a change after several consecutive weeks of positive flows.
XRP exchange reserves rise as Binance leverage declines
Exchange balances provided another sign of changing market conditions.
CryptoQuant analyst CryptoOnchain reported that XRP reserves across tracked exchanges reached approximately 11.81 billion tokens on October 17. The figure ranked in the 99th percentile of observations over the previous 365 days, indicating unusually high exchange balances relative to the past year.
Large exchange reserves can mean more XRP is available for trading, but they do not prove that holders intend to sell. Tokens may also be deposited for collateral, hedging or other purposes.
Binance’s derivatives data showed a decline in leveraged trading activity. XRP open interest fell from $538.1 million on October 4 to $453 million on October 17, a decrease of approximately 15.8%.
During the same period, XRP’s price dropped from around $1.52 to $1.29. Binance’s leverage ratio also declined from 0.205 to 0.170, indicating reduced exposure through leveraged positions.
CryptoOnchain reported approximately $25.7 million in long liquidations on October 7 and 8, describing the two-day period as the largest liquidation cluster in the preceding two weeks. Funding rates were negative on six of the previous 11 days, suggesting that bearish positioning had become more prominent.
Binance’s own XRP reserves stood at approximately 2.67 billion tokens, around the 30th percentile of their annual range. This suggests that the elevated aggregate exchange balance was not matched by an equally unusual increase at Binance.
Net inflows to Binance averaged roughly 9.3 million XRP per day over the previous week. Transfers of 22 million and 29 million XRP were recorded on October 13 and 14.
CryptoOnchain suggested that some investors may have moved XRP onto exchanges to use as collateral or hedge their positions. However, the analyst described this explanation as unverified, and exchange deposits alone cannot establish whether the tokens were intended for sale.
XRP Ledger activity shows mixed signals
Activity on the XRP Ledger also weakened during the reporting period.
Data attributed to XRPSCAN showed payment volume falling to approximately 119.5 million XRP on October 17, down 72.3% from the previous day. The figure was well below the reported 30-day average of 629.3 million XRP.
Payment volume measures XRP transferred between accounts on the network. It differs from centralized exchange trading volume and can change sharply because of large transactions or movements between wallets.
CryptoQuant separately reported that whale transaction volume declined 44% week over week, while the number of tokens transferred fell 37%. These figures cover the analyst’s selected measurement period and are not directly comparable with XRPSCAN’s single-day payment-volume data.
Analyst Ali Martinez later reported that the dollar value of coins transferred across the XRP Ledger reached approximately $49.70 billion while XRP traded near $1.25.
Martinez interpreted the activity as a possible sign that buyers were defending the $1.25 level. However, a rise in transferred value does not necessarily mean investors purchased that amount of XRP, since blockchain transfers can occur without a market trade.
XRP price faces resistance as momentum remains weak
XRP’s technical indicators continued to reflect selling pressure despite its latest recovery.
The Relative Strength Index stood at 38.48, below its moving average of 41.31 and the neutral level of 50. This indicated weak momentum, although the RSI had not reached the commonly used oversold threshold of 30.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator also remained bearish. Its MACD line stood at -0.03612, below the signal line at -0.02110, while the histogram remained negative.
The immediate support area lies between $1.25 and $1.30. A sustained decline below this range could bring $1.10 and $1.00 into focus as lower reference levels.
On the upside, XRP faces resistance near $1.40, followed by a broader resistance zone between $1.50 and $1.60.
Martinez identified $1.25 as an important level in a possible inverse head-and-shoulders pattern on the three-day chart. He suggested that a sustained close above $1.56 could open the way toward $2, while losing support at $1.25 would put $1 back in focus.
Another analyst, Crypto Patel, identified a potential buying zone between $1.22 and $1, based on a higher-timeframe chart and Fibonacci levels. His longer-term projections included $4, $10 and $20, but these remain speculative targets rather than established price expectations.
For now, XRP’s recovery to $1.31 offers some relief after its recent decline, but ETF withdrawals, high aggregate exchange reserves and weak momentum indicators show that the market remains under pressure. Whether the token can hold $1.25 and reclaim resistance above $1.40 will be important for assessing the strength of any further recovery.
