Economic expert Abdul Rahman Al-Mashhadani has warned that leaving OPEC would be a risky move for Iraq, saying the country is not currently prepared to handle the challenges that could follow.
According to Al-Mashhadani, talk of Iraq withdrawing from OPEC is far more complicated than it may seem. He believes Iraq would struggle to survive a major oil price war if it were no longer part of the organization.
He pointed to the previous oil price conflict between Saudi Arabia and Russia as an example. During that period, Saudi Arabia sharply increased production and offered oil at heavily discounted prices, causing global oil prices to collapse. At one point, oil prices fell to around $18 per barrel, creating serious financial difficulties for oil-dependent countries, including Iraq.
Al-Mashhadani explained that Iraq remains highly dependent on oil revenues and lacks several important protections that could help it withstand a prolonged drop in prices. Unlike some major oil-producing nations, Iraq does not have a large sovereign wealth fund to cushion the impact of lower oil income.
He also noted that Iraq’s economy is not sufficiently diversified. The country relies heavily on oil exports, meaning any significant decline in crude prices can quickly affect government revenues, public spending, and economic stability.
For these reasons, Al-Mashhadani believes Iraq should remain a member of OPEC rather than consider leaving the group. However, he suggested that Iraq should continue pushing for adjustments to its production and export quotas within the organization.
He argued that Iraq has strong grounds for seeking a larger quota because of its substantial production capacity and its position as one of the world’s largest holders of proven oil reserves. According to Al-Mashhadani, working within OPEC while defending Iraq’s interests would be a safer and more practical approach than leaving the organization altogether.
In his view, maintaining OPEC membership helps Iraq avoid unnecessary risks while providing a platform to negotiate policies that better reflect the country’s growing role in global oil markets.
