Arthur Hayes is sticking to his big call: Bitcoin hitting $250,000 by the end of 2025.
And even after the recent drop to $80,600, he says that was the bottom of the market.
Hayes shared these thoughts on the Milk Road podcast, explaining why he’s still so bullish and why the dip didn’t scare him at all.
Why Hayes Thinks the Bottom Is In
According to Hayes, the Bitcoin drop from $125K down to $80K wasn’t caused by fear or changing sentiment. Instead, it came from a simple misunderstanding about ETF flows.
People assumed ETF inflows meant institutions were buying Bitcoin for the long term. Hayes says that’s not true.
He explained that many of the top holders of BlackRock’s IBIT ETF — firms like Brevan Howard, Goldman Sachs, Millennium, Jane Street, and Avenir — weren’t actually taking long-term Bitcoin positions. They were doing basis trades:
- buying the Bitcoin ETF
- selling CME futures at the same time
It’s a short-term trading strategy, not long-term conviction.
When funding rates fell on October 10, these traders unwound their positions — selling the ETF and buying back futures.
Retail traders saw the ETF selling and assumed, “Institutions loved Bitcoin in the summer and now they hate it!”
Hayes says that misunderstanding is what added pressure to the price.
The Liquidity Problem Is Ending
Hayes said another major factor behind Bitcoin’s dip was the U.S. Treasury draining money from the system.
From July to November, the Treasury raised around $1 trillion to refill its cash account. That money had to come from somewhere — and it came right out of market liquidity.
On top of that, the Federal Reserve was still doing quantitative tightening (QT), which also removes liquidity.
In total, almost $1 trillion left the dollar markets.
But now Hayes says this phase is finished:
- The Treasury’s account is back up to about $900 billion, slightly above its $850 billion target
- The Federal Reserve has ended QT and will now keep its balance sheet steady
To Hayes, this means we’ve hit the low point for liquidity and the next move is up.
And when dollar liquidity goes up, risk assets — including Bitcoin — tend to follow.
Why Hayes Still Sees $250,000 Ahead
Looking into 2026, Hayes believes banks will begin taking the lead in creating credit. JP Morgan, for example, has discussed $1.5 trillion in new lending for industrial projects.
As more dollars enter the system, Hayes expects people will start pricing in a stronger forward outlook for liquidity — which he says will push Bitcoin much higher.
He remains confident:
Bitcoin at $250,000 by December 31, 2025.
