Bitcoin has received some support from the sharp drop in expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in October, but a move toward $93,000 will still depend on lower Treasury yields and stronger buying pressure.
Lacie Zhang, Research Lead at Bitget Wallet, said Bitcoin could move toward $90,000–$93,000 if Treasury yields continue to fall and upcoming inflation data supports the weaker U.S. employment picture.
According to Zhang’s Oct. 5 assessment, expectations for an October Fed rate increase dropped to around 23%, down from about 64% one week earlier. The change came after September payroll growth was reported at just 29,000 jobs.
Zhang said the shift in Fed expectations has already helped Bitcoin, but the cryptocurrency still needs sustained demand to turn that support into a stronger rally.
She identified $87,400 as an important level for Bitcoin. A daily or weekly close above that price, combined with continued ETF inflows and stronger spot buying, would provide a clearer signal that a breakout is developing.
Bitcoin has repeatedly struggled to stay above $87,000, suggesting that profit-taking and existing selling pressure are still absorbing new demand.
Zhang’s upside targets are $90,000 and $93,000, but she stressed that these levels depend on falling Treasury yields, supportive inflation data, and stronger market demand. On the downside, she identified $84,000 and $82,000 as important support levels.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted around $2.65 billion in September, according to Zhang, while approximately $134 million entered the products during the first two trading sessions of October. She said the continued inflows are positive but have not yet been strong enough to push Bitcoin decisively through resistance.
The weaker U.S. jobs data has also changed expectations for Federal Reserve policy. September payroll growth came in at 29,000, well below economists’ expectations of 90,000. Unemployment also increased to 4.2% from 4.1%, while August’s payroll figure was revised lower.
These developments have reduced the likelihood of another immediate rate increase, which can support risk assets such as Bitcoin. However, inflation remains an important risk.
Stronger-than-expected Consumer Price Index or Producer Price Index data, higher oil prices, more hawkish comments from the Fed, or another rise in long-term Treasury yields could push rate-hike expectations higher again.
If that happens, Zhang believes Bitcoin could fall toward $84,000, with $82,000 becoming the next major support area.
For now, Bitcoin remains caught between strong ETF demand and continued selling around the $87,000 area. The next major test will be whether buyers can push the price above $87,400 and hold it there while Treasury yields and inflation expectations remain supportive.
