Grayscale’s Head of Research, Zach Pandl, believes the chances of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 have become much lower, mainly because of a busy Senate schedule and the political challenges that come with an election year.
Even so, the bill is still alive. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has filed a procedural motion that sets up an important Senate test on September 15, shortly after lawmakers return from their August recess.
The September vote is not a final decision on the bill. Instead, senators will vote on whether to move forward with debating the legislation. If that step succeeds, the bill would still need further debate, possible amendments, and additional votes before it could become law.
The CLARITY Act already has bipartisan support. The House passed an earlier version of the bill in July 2025 with backing from both Republicans and Democrats. Earlier this year, the Senate Banking Committee also approved its portion of the legislation with support from members of both parties.
Despite that progress, Pandl said the path ahead remains difficult. He argued that the limited time left in the congressional calendar and election-year politics make it harder for lawmakers to finish the process before the end of the year.
Grayscale said that even if the bill does not pass, the crypto industry will continue operating. Bitcoin and other major blockchain networks would not be directly affected, and the growth of stablecoin payments would likely continue.
However, the company warned that the lack of a clear federal crypto framework could discourage some investment and innovation in the United States. According to Grayscale, businesses and developers may choose to move projects to countries that offer clearer regulations and stronger legal protections for digital assets.
At the same time, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is continuing to develop crypto-related regulations on its own. The agency has already provided guidance on areas such as staking, mining, airdrops, and other crypto activities. It is also considering new rules covering crypto trading platforms, digital asset offerings, and custody requirements.
Still, SEC regulations are different from federal legislation. Rules created by regulators can be changed by future administrations or challenged in court, while a law passed by Congress would provide a more permanent framework for the industry.
For now, attention is focused on September 15, when the Senate will hold its next key vote on the CLARITY Act. The outcome will offer a clearer picture of whether Congress can still pass a comprehensive crypto market structure law this year or whether regulation will continue to be driven mainly by the SEC.
