Bitcoin and Ethereum options worth around $18.1 billion are heading toward their Sept. 25 quarterly expiry, with calls currently outnumbering puts in both markets.
Coinbase Markets reported that Bitcoin’s open-interest put/call ratio was 0.66, while its 24-hour trading volume ratio was much lower at 0.37. Ethereum had an open-interest ratio of 0.61 and a 24-hour volume ratio of 0.55.
A put/call ratio below 1 means there are more calls than puts under that measurement. However, this does not automatically mean traders are betting prices will rise, because options can also be used for hedging, spreads and other strategies.
Bitcoin makes up most of Friday’s expiry. Deribit data showed about $16.13 billion in Bitcoin options and $2.16 billion in Ethereum options scheduled to expire, putting the combined figure near $18.29 billion. The difference from Coinbase’s $18.1 billion figure is mainly due to changing prices and positions between data snapshots.
For Bitcoin, call open interest is heavily concentrated around the $90,000 and $100,000 strikes.
BTC was trading around $86,500 early Wednesday, putting the $90,000 strike about 4% above the current price and $100,000 nearly 16% higher.
The large amount of call open interest does not mean Bitcoin will necessarily reach either level before Friday’s expiry. Open interest only shows outstanding contracts and does not tell us whether traders bought or sold those calls.
Bitcoin has moved closer to these higher strikes in recent days. BTC climbed from around $76,000 on Sept. 17 to above $86,000 this week and briefly moved above $87,000 on Sept. 21.
Ethereum is showing a similar pattern, with call interest spread mainly between $3,000 and $4,000.
Deribit data showed around $1.34 billion in ETH call open interest compared with about $820.1 million in puts for the Sept. 25 expiry. Ethereum was trading near $2,760 early Wednesday, putting the $3,000 strike around 9% above the current price, while $4,000 was roughly 45% higher.
ETH has also gained strongly since the middle of September. It was trading near $2,416 on Sept. 16 before moving above $2,600 and reaching more than $2,805 on Sept. 21.
The size of Friday’s expiry has also grown compared with Coinbase’s earlier data. On Sept. 15, Coinbase estimated combined Bitcoin and Ethereum options open interest at around $16.6 billion. Bitcoin accounted for about $14.73 billion and Ethereum for $1.92 billion.
At that time, Bitcoin’s put/call ratio was 0.52 and Ethereum’s was 0.57. Bitcoin’s estimated max-pain level was around $72,000, while Ethereum’s was around $2,200.
By Sept. 23, the combined value had increased to about $18.1 billion. Bitcoin’s put/call ratio had risen to 0.66 and Ethereum’s to 0.61, although calls still remained ahead of puts.
The increase in options notional value does not mean $18.1 billion of new money entered the market. Notional value depends on the number of contracts and the current value of Bitcoin and Ethereum. Both assets have also risen significantly since the earlier snapshot.
Friday’s contracts are part of Deribit’s quarterly expiry cycle. Bitcoin and Ethereum quarterly options expire on the last Friday of March, June, September and December at 08:00 UTC.
The final settlement price is based on the relevant Deribit index during the period shortly before expiration.
Large options expiries can lead traders and market makers to adjust their hedges as prices move closer to major strike levels. Still, large open interest at $90,000, $100,000, $3,000 or $4,000 does not mean Bitcoin or Ethereum must move toward those prices.
The final open interest and put/call ratios can continue changing before Friday as traders close positions, roll contracts into later expiries or add new positions.
For now, the main focus is on how Bitcoin and Ethereum trade into the Sept. 25 settlement, with calls continuing to dominate both options markets.
