The future of the CLARITY Act remains uncertain, with investment bank TD Cowen warning that the crypto market structure bill still faces major political and legislative challenges before it can become law.
According to TD Cowen’s Washington Research Group, Senate Majority Leader John Thune is expected to begin the formal process of advancing the bill during the week of July 13. If things move forward as planned, the legislation could reach the Senate floor for debate and a vote later in July.
However, TD Cowen believes there are still several obstacles that could slow or even derail the bill.
The firm highlighted July 24 as an important deadline because the House of Representatives is scheduled to leave for its August recess shortly afterward. If lawmakers fail to make progress before then, the chances of passing the legislation before the November midterm elections could become much more difficult.
TD Cowen Managing Director Jaret Seiberg said there is still significant uncertainty about whether the bill can clear Congress before election season dominates the political agenda.
The concerns echo warnings from other industry analysts. Recently, Galaxy Research lowered its estimate of the bill becoming law in 2026, while analysts at JPMorgan also expressed doubts that lawmakers would be able to pass it this year.
One of the biggest questions surrounding the legislation is whether President Donald Trump would ultimately sign it if it reaches his desk.
According to TD Cowen, Democrats are expected to propose several politically sensitive amendments during the debate process. Republican lawmakers may be reluctant to support those votes unless they are confident the president will approve the final version of the bill.
The uncertainty increased after Trump recently declined to sign another bipartisan bill that had been negotiated by members of his own administration. That decision has left some lawmakers unsure about how he would respond to the CLARITY Act.
Ethics rules have become another major point of disagreement.
Some Democratic lawmakers are pushing for provisions that would prohibit government officials and their family members from owning or operating cryptocurrency businesses. Those restrictions would also apply to the president and senior government officials.
Republicans have not reached a clear consensus on the issue, and analysts believe the debate could become one of the most difficult parts of the legislative process.
Several senators are expected to play important roles in determining the bill’s fate, particularly moderate Republicans and lawmakers nearing retirement who may not always vote along party lines.
Another unresolved issue involves anti-money laundering rules and the responsibilities of software developers in the crypto industry.
Law enforcement groups have raised concerns that certain sections of the CLARITY Act could make it harder to investigate illegal activity involving digital assets. They argue that some proposed protections for non-custodial software developers may reduce regulatory oversight and create challenges for future investigations.
Supporters of the bill, however, believe the legislation would provide much-needed regulatory clarity for the cryptocurrency industry by establishing clearer rules for exchanges, developers, investors, and digital asset companies.
Despite the ongoing debates, TD Cowen said it does not expect major changes to the bill’s stablecoin provisions, even though some banks and financial institutions continue to oppose certain parts of the proposal.
For now, the CLARITY Act remains one of the most closely watched pieces of crypto legislation in Washington. While supporters hope it will create a clearer framework for digital assets, political disagreements, election-year pressures, and unresolved policy questions continue to cast doubt on whether it can become law before the November elections.
