XRP whale outflows from Binance have fallen to their lowest level in five years, according to crypto analyst Darkfost. The 90-day moving average dropped to $49.7 million as XRP traded near $1.30 amid weak market momentum.
Darkfost reported on October 20 that the figure was down sharply from a peak of around $3.5 billion in February 2025. The decline suggests that large XRP holders are withdrawing fewer assets from Binance than they did during the earlier period. However, lower outflows do not necessarily mean whales have stopped buying or are preparing to sell.
XRP was trading around $1.30 on October 20, with its price remaining below several major daily moving averages. Meanwhile, another analyst, Carolina, identified a possible long-term reversal pattern but said the outlook depends on price confirmation and trading volume.
Developments on the XRP Ledger are also drawing attention. A bug-fix amendment could activate on October 23 if validator support remains high enough, while the network’s proposed lending features still lack the required votes.
XRP whale outflows fall sharply
Darkfost’s analysis shows that the 90-day average value of XRP leaving Binance has fallen from approximately $3.5 billion in February 2025 to $49.7 million as of October 20, 2026. That represents a decline of about 98.6%.
The latest reading is reportedly near levels last seen in October 2021.
Large withdrawals from exchanges can sometimes indicate that investors are moving tokens into private wallets or long-term storage. However, transfers may also reflect custody changes or other operational activity, so they do not automatically confirm accumulation.
The data covers Binance rather than the entire XRP market. It also measures the value of withdrawals over a 90-day average, not the total number of XRP purchases across all exchanges.
Darkfost suggested that major holders may be waiting for more attractive prices before increasing their exposure. His interpretation remains a possible explanation rather than confirmed evidence of investors’ intentions.
A 90-day moving average smooths out short-term changes, making it easier to identify broader trends. Because it covers roughly three months, the latest figure reflects activity over an extended period rather than withdrawals on a single day.
XRP price remains under pressure
XRP traded near $1.30 on October 20, with a reported daily range of $1.29 to $1.32. Its market capitalization was around $82 billion, while daily trading volume stood near $1.28 billion.
The cryptocurrency remained below four major exponential moving averages:
- 20-day EMA: $1.3689
- 50-day EMA: $1.3743
- 100-day EMA: $1.3353
- 200-day EMA: $1.3742
These averages place a potential resistance zone between roughly $1.33 and $1.37. XRP would need to recover above these levels and hold there to show stronger short-term momentum.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood at 36.49, below its signal average of 39.83. An RSI below 50 generally indicates weaker momentum, while a reading below 30 is commonly associated with oversold conditions. XRP’s current reading has not reached that lower threshold.
On October 19, crypto.news reported that XRP had rebounded to around $1.31 after a period of pressure that included $1.84 million in net outflows from US spot XRP ETFs over the previous week. Those withdrawals ended a 13-week streak of inflows.
However, the ETFs recorded no net flows on October 19. A flat daily reading does not confirm that institutional buying has resumed or that selling pressure has ended.
ETF flows and Binance whale withdrawals measure different activities. ETF data tracks subscriptions and redemptions of investment products, while exchange outflow data records cryptocurrency moving from trading platforms to external addresses.
Analysts watch support levels and a possible reversal
XRP’s immediate support area is around $1.28 to $1.30. If the price falls below $1.28 and remains there, the next potential support zone is $1.20 to $1.25. A deeper decline could bring the $1.00 to $1.05 area into focus.
On the upside, resistance begins near the 100-day EMA at $1.3353. Additional resistance lies between $1.37 and $1.38.
The technical assessment suggests that a sustained move above $1.38 could open the way toward $1.45 to $1.50. These are conditional price scenarios, not guaranteed targets.
Carolina has outlined a longer-term possibility for XRP. In an October 20 post, she described a potential accumulation structure and identified $0.50 to $0.60 as a possible support area if the market experiences a much deeper correction.
Her recovery scenario includes possible moves toward $1.50, $1.80 and $2.40, followed by a potential advance above $3. She also identified $5 as a longer-term target, depending on how the market develops.
In a separate analysis, Carolina suggested that XRP could be forming an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern near $1. The formation could continue developing into mid-December if the right shoulder takes a similar amount of time to form as the left.
An inverse head-and-shoulders pattern consists of three lows, with the middle low deeper than the other two. Traders typically look for the price to break above the pattern’s neckline, preferably with stronger trading volume, before considering the pattern confirmed.
Carolina identified a possible target near $2.80 if the pattern is completed and confirmed. For now, it remains a developing technical setup rather than a confirmed reversal.
XRP Ledger bug-fix amendment could activate October 23
The XRP Ledger is also approaching a possible software amendment activation.
The fixCleanup3_4_0 amendment had received 29 affirmative votes from 35 trusted validators as of October 19. This meets the network’s required 80% support threshold.
The amendment must maintain sufficient validator support throughout a continuous two-week approval period before it can activate. The latest estimate placed activation around 09:34 UTC on October 23, provided support remains above the required level.
The update addresses several technical issues involving transactions, automated market makers and proposed lending-related functions. Its expected activation is separate from approval of the network’s lending features.
The LendingProtocol and LendingProtocolV1_1 amendments each had 19 supporting votes, leaving them 10 votes short of the required 29. SingleAssetVault, which is intended to support pooled assets for the lending system, had 21 votes and needed eight more.
These lending features are therefore not yet approved for activation.
The October 19 network update also placed a confidentiality-related amendment at 22 supporting votes, below the required threshold. Transaction batching, by contrast, had already activated on October 9.
Overall, XRP is facing weak short-term price momentum while exchange outflows from large holders remain unusually low. Analysts are watching support near $1.28 and resistance around $1.38 for clues about the next move, while XRP Ledger developers continue working through separate validator approval processes for network upgrades.