The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has issued another warning to prediction-market operators, telling them that broad, one-size-fits-all contract filings are not acceptable when listing new event-based trading products.
In guidance released on July 24, the regulator said exchanges using the self-certification process must provide detailed information for each contract they plan to offer. This includes the contract terms, settlement method, data sources, and an explanation of how the product complies with U.S. regulations.
The warning comes as prediction markets continue to grow rapidly, with platforms offering contracts tied to sports, politics, economics, weather, and other real-world events. While the CFTC still allows exchanges to list contracts through self-certification without waiting for formal approval, it stressed that exchanges cannot use a single template filing to cover a wide range of different products without providing specific details for each one.
According to the agency, some recent submissions lacked enough information about settlement procedures, market safeguards, and legal compliance. The CFTC said this makes it difficult for regulators to properly assess risks such as market manipulation, inaccurate settlement data, or violations of existing rules.
This is the second warning issued by the agency in 2026. In March, the CFTC reminded exchanges that they are responsible for reviewing contracts before listing them and ensuring that products meet regulatory standards. That earlier guidance also focused on issues such as market integrity, reliable settlement sources, and consumer protection.
The latest advisory arrives as the CFTC considers broader changes to how event contracts are regulated. Proposed amendments would introduce a formal three-step review process for contracts connected to sensitive topics such as gambling, war, terrorism, assassination, and unlawful activities.
Under the proposal, regulators would first determine whether a product qualifies as an event contract. They would then assess whether it is linked to one of the categories identified in the Commodity Exchange Act. If it is, the contract would undergo a public-interest review before a decision is made on whether it can be listed.
Importantly, the proposal would not automatically ban entire categories of contracts. Instead, regulators would evaluate products on a case-by-case basis, considering their structure, purpose, and potential impact.
The increased scrutiny reflects the rapid expansion of the prediction-market industry. According to figures cited by the CFTC, registered exchanges listed only a handful of event contracts annually between 2006 and 2020. That number has since exploded, reaching roughly 1,600 new contracts during 2025 alone.
Trading activity has grown just as quickly. Industry estimates suggest that trading volume on regulated prediction-market platforms exceeded $25 billion in 2025, with the number of available contracts continuing to rise.
The proposed rules could have significant implications for major prediction-market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, particularly for markets related to sports, political events, war, or other controversial subjects.
For now, the CFTC has not announced any enforcement action against a specific platform. Instead, the latest notice serves as a reminder that exchanges using self-certification must provide enough information for regulators to properly evaluate each contract’s design, settlement process, data quality, and compliance with market rules.
As prediction markets continue to expand into new areas, regulators appear determined to ensure that growth is matched by stronger oversight and clearer disclosure standards.
