Galaxy Digital has lowered its expectations for the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026, saying the biggest problem is no longer the bill itself but the lack of time available in the Senate calendar.
In a new research note, Galaxy Digital’s Head of Research, Alex Thorn, reduced the firm’s estimate of the bill’s chances of passing from 60% to 50%.
According to Thorn, the main issue is not political disagreement over the legislation. Instead, the Senate simply has very little time left before its August recess, and there has been little visible progress toward bringing the bill to a vote.
He said the absence of public updates has become a warning sign on its own. While Senate committees continue working behind the scenes on a combined version of the bill, lawmakers have not yet released the final text or announced a schedule for debate and voting.
Galaxy noted that discussions between Senate staff members remain constructive. However, Thorn warned that private negotiations should not be confused with real legislative momentum unless leaders commit to a public voting timetable.
Market sentiment appears to reflect the same concerns.
On prediction market platform Polymarket, traders currently estimate only a 41% chance that the CLARITY Act will become law in 2026, showing growing doubts about whether lawmakers can move the bill forward in time.
A major obstacle is the Senate’s schedule.
The Senate is currently adjourned until July 13, leaving only a limited number of legislative days before lawmakers leave for the August recess.
Representative Anna Paulina Luna recently criticized the decision to extend the Senate break, noting that Senate Majority Leader John Thune secured unanimous approval for the adjournment.
Luna argued that the delay slows progress on important legislation, including the CLARITY Act, which is still waiting for Senate floor consideration.
Galaxy also pointed out that competition for Senate floor time has become even tougher. Lawmakers are dealing with several other high-priority issues, including election legislation, surveillance law renewals, and the annual National Defense Authorization Act.
With so many major bills competing for attention, crypto market structure legislation faces a difficult path.
While scheduling remains the biggest concern, a few policy disagreements are still unresolved.
According to Galaxy, ethics provisions continue to divide lawmakers even after a conflict-of-interest amendment was removed during committee discussions. Some law enforcement groups have also requested changes to protections included in the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act, which is linked to the broader crypto legislation package.
However, the U.S. Department of Justice recently pushed back against concerns raised by law enforcement organizations. The department stated that the CLARITY Act would not weaken investigations involving digital assets, including cases related to terrorism financing, drug trafficking, or human smuggling.
Despite the challenges, there are still signs of progress.
Senator Cynthia Lummis has said the Senate expects to release the final version of the CLARITY Act around July 4. Lawmakers hope to gather public feedback before seeking a floor vote later in July.
If the Senate approves a version that differs from the bill already passed by the House of Representatives, both chambers would need to reconcile the differences before sending the legislation to the president for final approval.
Galaxy believes several developments could improve the bill’s chances. These include releasing the final Senate text, resolving remaining policy disputes, and most importantly, securing a commitment from Senate leadership to hold a floor vote in July.
Thorn said that if Senate leaders announce a July vote within the next two weeks, Galaxy could raise its estimated probability back to 60% or higher.
However, if lawmakers remain silent through mid-July and no clear voting schedule emerges, the firm may lower its expectations even further.
For now, the future of the CLARITY Act appears to depend less on politics and more on whether Congress can find enough time to move the legislation forward before the summer break begins.
