Brad Garlinghouse is doubling down on a bold prediction: the CLARITY Act will pass by the end of May.
Speaking at XRP Las Vegas 2026, he said the bill is finally close to the finish line after months of delays and debate.
This isn’t his first timeline, though.
- In February, he gave it an 80% chance of passing by April
- In March and April, he shifted that to May
- Now, he’s sticking firmly to an end-of-May deadline
So why the confidence?
Garlinghouse says the biggest roadblock — a dispute over stablecoin “yield” (basically whether platforms can offer rewards on stablecoin balances) — is nearly resolved.
His view is simple: when frustration in Washington hits its peak, that’s usually when deals finally get done.
There are also signs of movement in Congress.
Thom Tillis has said he’ll push for a committee vote once lawmakers return on May 11. That puts the earliest possible progress in the same week — but time is tight, with a holiday recess starting May 21.
Other lawmakers are stressing urgency too.
Cynthia Lummis has warned that this could be the last real chance to pass the bill before 2030, pointing to a rare alignment between Congress and the White House that may not last after future elections.
Meanwhile, industry support has grown.
More than 120 companies — including Ripple, Coinbase, Kraken, and Andreessen Horowitz — are backing the bill and pushing for quick action.
Still, not everyone is as optimistic as Garlinghouse.
Prediction markets and analysts are more cautious:
- Polymarket: ~46% chance of passing in 2026
- Galaxy Research: about 50/50
- TD Cowen: closer to one-in-three
That makes Garlinghouse’s timeline stand out as one of the most aggressive.
So where does things stand?
- Momentum is building
- Key disagreements are easing
- But the clock is tight
If the bill moves quickly after May 11, Garlinghouse could be right.
If not, this could turn into another missed deadline — and push the whole process much further down the road.
